The core infrastructure sector has expanded 4.8 per cent in October — better than 4.3 per cent in Septemeber — because of a healthy growth in cement, coal and electricity sectors.

However, on a year-on-year basis, core growth was lower than the 5 per cent rise in October last year because of a slowdown in fertilisers, crude and natural gas.

“The modest uptick in core sector growth, in conjunction with the broad-based improvement in the year-on-year performance of a majority of other early indicators such as auto production, fuel consumption and exports in October 2018, portends a pick-up in IIP growth to 6.5-7.5 per cent in that month,” Aditi Nayar, principal economist at Icra, said.

Growth in fertiliser production dropped sharply by 11.5 per cent, crude oil by 5 per cent and natural gas by 0.9 per cent in October over the year-ago period, according to data released by the commerce and industry ministry on Friday.

The production of coal, cement and electricity, on the other hand, expanded in the month under review.

Cement production growth rose sharply to 18.4 per cent in October 2018 from 11.8 per cent in September 2018, driving the improvement in core sector growth.

“With an unfavourable base effect related to the sustained double-digit growth in cement output from November 2017 onwards, we expect cement growth to decline sharply in the last five months of 2018-19, relative to the 15 per cent recorded in April-October 2018,” Nayar said.

The cement demand growth is estimated at a moderate 6-7 per cent in 2018-19, led by housing and infrastructure (mainly road, irrigation projects), she added.