President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is brushing aside President Trump’s professed disappointment in him and is pushing ahead in Ukraine with renewed intensity, having already priced in the possibility of new US pressure, analysts and people close to the Kremlin said.

Putin is convinced that Russia’s battlefield superiority is growing, and that Ukraine’s defences may collapse in the coming months, according to two people close to the Kremlin, who insisted on anonymity to speak candidly about sensitive diplomacy. Given Russia’s ongoing offensive, they say, Putin views it as out of the question to halt the fighting now without extensive concessions by Ukraine.

“He will not sacrifice his goals in Ukraine for the sake of improving relations with Trump,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said.

Putin’s recalcitrance highlights a stark reversal from some expectations earlier this year, when Trump came into office and aggressively pursued a rapprochement with Moscow, having pledged on the campaign trail to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Trump’s friendly approach to the Kremlin and an Oval Office shouting match with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine seemed to offer a rare opening for Putin.

Trump’s clear sympathy for Putin, many Russians hoped, could yield sanctions relief, western investment, arms-control deals and a favourable geopolitical realignment in Europe. All Putin needed to do, it seemed, was accept a Ukraine cease-fire that would have allowed Russia to keep the territory it had already captured.

But Putin wanted more. As Russia has gained on the battlefield, and Ukraine has struggled at the front lines, Putin’s military ambitions have only increased. As Trump makes his frustration with Putin known, it has become clearer that Putin is prepared to risk his relationship with the US President in service of what has emerged as his overarching goal after 40 months of war — achieving Ukraine’s capitulation to his demands.