Nigel Farage’s insurgent anti-immigration party, Reform UK, scored a significant, if razor-thin, victory on Friday in a parliamentary by-election in the northwest of England. The result served notice that Farage, a populist fixture and close ally of President Donald Trump, is again a rising force in British politics.
Reform’s candidate, Sarah Pochin, won by just six votes over her Labour Party opponent, Karen Shore, in Runcorn and Helsby, seizing what had been a safe seat for Labour until the incumbent, Mike Amesbury, was forced to resign after being convicted of assault for punching one of his constituents.
On a night of high drama, the outcome — the tightest in such an election in modern history — was so close that the vote had to be recounted, delaying the declaration of the result for hours.
But the victory, by 12,645 votes to 12,639, was the start of what could be an impressive show of strength by Reform in mayoral and local council elections held on Thursday.
More than 1,600 municipal seats are up for grabs, and polls suggest that Reform could win at least 300 of them.
If Reform’s gains are borne out as the ballots are counted, it would deliver a significant jolt to British politics, potentially accelerating the country’s shift towards a more polarised, multi-party system.
For Prime Minister Keir Starmer, it would be a setback in his party’s first electoral test since Labour swept to power in July. The Conservatives, still licking their wounds after last summer’s stinging defeat, would find themselves even more vulnerable to a threat from Reform.
By itself, the Runcorn defeat is a blow to Starmer. Labour won the seat in the last election with a margin of 15,400 votes. But Amesbury’s conviction, on top of broader frustration from voters with the government, gave Reform an opening. Pochin, a businesswoman who served in local government, will join Farage as one of five Reform lawmakers with seats in Parliament.
Her single-digit victory margin in a byelection was without precedent in modern British political history. The closest margin until now was in Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1973, when the Liberal Democrats won by 57 votes.
“The people of Runcorn and Helsby have spoken,” Pochin said after the victory. “Enough is enough. Enough Tory failure. Enough Labour lies.” She was joined by Farage, who told reporters that “it’s a huge night for Reform.” Peter Kyle, a Labour cabinet minister, told the BBC that the result was “frustrating”. The circumstances of Amesbury’s resignation had made it a difficult election, he said, but he added that he understood “why a message like this would want to be sent.”
On Thursday in Runcorn, an industrial town of 61,000 that hunkers on the Mersey river, west of Liverpool, the portents of a Reform victory were in the air. People on the main street said the party had capitalised on anti-incumbent fervour, fuelled by dissatisfaction with the economy.
New York Times News Service
