London, March 15 (Reuters): Islamic militants will see the defeat of Spain’s Popular Party and the country’s planned withdrawal from Iraq as a victory for their cause, encouraging more attacks aimed at political ends, security experts say.
If, as evidence suggests, al Qaida or its sympathisers were behind last week’s blasts in Madrid, the election upset in Spain will be seen as the first time Islamic militants have toppled a western government by killing civilians.
“They will be thinking they’ve achieved something absolutely extraordinary,” said David Claridge, managing director of Janusian Security Risk Management, a London-based consultancy that analyses security risk for commercial clients.
“This is the one occasion I can remember where there is specific cause and effect: here’s an election, and we can affect this election. And I think this will give them a lot of succour for the future as they plan more attacks.”
A week ago polls showed Spain’s ruling Popular Party — despite supporting the US and Britain in a domestically unpopular war in Iraq — was headed for victory in yesterday’s election. But in the wake of the attacks, which killed nearly 200 people and injured 1,500, voters swung behind the anti-war Socialist Party. Its winning candidate Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has since repeated a pledge to withdraw troops from Iraq unless the UN takes charge by mid-year.
Security experts say they think toppling the Spanish government was al Qaida’s explicit goal in last week’s attacks.
They point to a 50-page book, Iraq al-Jihad, which appeared on militant Internet sites last December and discussed attacking Spanish targets to increase public hostility to the war and bring down Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar.
It explicitly suggested militants “exploit the coming elections in Spain in March, 2004,” excerpts provided by Janusian’s Claridge said. “We think the Spanish government could not afford more than two or three attacks...after which it would have to withdraw as a result of popular pressures,” the book said.
