Even the weirdest of predictions couldn’t have had Portugal facing Greece, but then the European Championship is known for its disregard for reputation. Euro 2004 has taken this unpredictability to a new height. This is why the hosts can’t relax, even though they won’t get such an unheralded opposition to contend with for a first major title in the next 50 years.
I don’t recall seeing such a surprise finalist in a major tournament. It’s been a new odyssey for Greece, for sure. They don’t boast much class but their dogged style and methodical approach suggests they will again trouble the hosts, as they did in the tournament-opener.
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This is why Scolari must keep his fingers crossed, despite working with a set of players who are ahead of the Greeks in quality and technical skill. Otto Rehhagel’s men make up for this with their speed, endurance, tenacity and organisational discipline.
They are always harrying the opponents, two to three players challenging the man in possession, with the rest congesting the road leading to the goal. It may look chaotic in terms of the number of legs near the penalty box, but there is a method in it. The German coach has taught the Greeks the value of this dexterity and helped them understand and execute the trick of frustrating the opposition by outnumbering them inside their own half. He has also reduced the distance between his players to 8-10 yards, whereas most other teams prefer 15. This means the Greeks are quicker in helping each other, either in clearing the ball from tight situations or while challenging the opposition together.
This will be the biggest test for Portugal. The likes of Figo, who loves speeding down the flanks, will not be allowed the room. There will hardly be space to operate down the middle either and how Portugal draw the Greeks out of their den will determine the course of the match. Scolari may start on an apparently defensive mode in order to create room inside the Greek half.
Someone like Deco can turn out be the key man in such a situation. He sees angles others don’t and slips in the final pass that can decide a match. But he is neither the fastest nor the most powerful, so I expect a few early body-checks on him and am eager to see how he responds. The entire Portuguese lot will have to hold their nerve and can’t afford to be impatient.
Ronaldo can also make a big impact. He has power, speed, the ability to cut in and reach the striking zone. He can score too and win one-to-one situations. There will be at least two men converging on him whenever he starts running and this will be a mouth-watering contest.
I don’t see the Portuguese defence coming under sustained pressure. This is not necessarily a blessing, as in the last few matches they were kept awake by a regular flow of activity near their penalty box. This time, Scolari has to ensure his defenders are alert to the threat of counter-attacks.
Though a side with an obvious focus on spoiling, Greece are capable of producing that surprise spark. They were lucky to beat the Czechs, but the goal they scored was well executed, with authority and finesse. It also showed they devote time to the set-pieces, as you expect an apparently ‘small’ team to.
Portugal’s biggest plus is the belief they can derive from their successful and spirited journey through a difficult phase in this tournament. It has been now or never for them, since losing the first match and they have showed commendable mental strength. This fervour and the desire to book a place among the elite of world football in front of an inspiring home crowd make Portugal 52-48 favourites.