The 0-2 drubbing at South Africa’s hands has pushed India to No.5 in the World Test Championship (WTC) standings.

Although it’s still early stages in the current WTC cycle, this series loss does make India’s road to the Test Championship final slated to be held in 2027 tougher.

Among other teams, New Zealand will play their first Test series from December 2 against the West Indies in Christchurch, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have played just one, while England have just begun their second — in the ongoing Ashes Down Under. But with Australia having 100 percentage points at present and South Africa consolidating their second place in the standings with 75 percentage points (see chart), India will have to do much more in the second half of their campaign for a top-two finish.

India’s next Test assignment is the two-match series in Sri Lanka in August 2026, followed by the New Zealand tour in October-November next year. For sure, India can fancy their chances against Sri Lanka, who aren’t quite considered now among the strong teams. Besides, it was only last year when India lost the ODI series in Sri Lanka, failing to negotiate the Islanders’ spin attack.

Thereafter, the Black Caps await them, and in New Zealand, India lost their last two Test series in 2014 and early 2020 despite having stalwarts in their batting line-up.

However, even if India win both their Tests each against Sri Lanka and New Zealand, they may still need to beat Australia handsomely in the five-match series at home in early 2027.

In terms of the numbers from the last two cycles, teams will need to acquire percentage points in the range of 60-65 for a shot at the WTC final.

In the 2021-23 cycle, India qualified as the second team for the final with percentage points of 58.8, while Australia’s 67.54 earned them the No.2 spot in that edition.

For India to get to 60 percentage points, they need to finish on 130 points, since they are playing 18 Tests in this cycle. That means India need 78 more points from their remaining nine Tests to qualify for the final.

Assuming India aren’t docked any points, they need six wins and two draws, which will take them to 80 points. Or, if they win seven of the nine Tests, they will finish on
84 points.

Teams get 12 points for a win and four for a draw.

All said and done, regardless of how the other teams fare, India’s series loss at home to the Proteas may hurt their WTC prospects again, just as it had done in the previous cycle.