Tiger Woods played 18 practice holes at Augusta National Golf Club on Tuesday, sparking speculation that he will return to competition at the Masters after back and other injuries. If he does come back, what are his chances of success?

There is some history as a guide: Woods has come back from extended layoffs several times in his career. From his debut as a pro at age 20 in 1996 to 2008, he missed no significant playing time. The first big gap in his career came after his victory at the 2008 US Open, his 14th Major win.

At that tournament, at Torrey Pines in California, he beat Rocco Mediate on the first hole of a sudden-death playoff despite struggling with a knee problem. He described it as "probably the greatest tournament I've ever had." Two days later, he announced that he would have surgery to repair damage to the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. He has not won a Major since.

He made his return early in the next season at the 2009 Match Play Championship, beating unheralded Brendan Jones in the first round. But in the second round, he lost, 4 and 2, to another journeyman, Tim Clark.

Though that return was indifferent, it did not take him long to find his form. Two weeks later, he was ninth at Doral, and the next week he won at the Arnold Palmer. He won five more tournaments on the Tour that year.

At the end of the 2009 season, though, came his most notorious break from golf. After he crashed his S.U.V. into a neighbour's tree and his marital infidelities were exposed, he announced an "indefinite break from professional golf."

His chosen venue for his return in April 2010? The Masters, the tournament he had made his own with four career victories. Phil Mickelson won the event, but Woods contended almost the whole way and finished fourth.

Woods had a poor 2010 and early 2011, the lone bright spot was another fourth at the Masters. Just a month later, Woods pulled out of the Players Championship, suffering from more problems with his left knee. He missed the US and British Opens.

His next return came in August 2011 at the World Golf Championship-Bridgestone, where he was merely 37th. The rest of that year was forgettable too.

Woods seemed back in business in 2012, winning four times on Tour and five times the next year. In 2014, though, he had back surgery. Returning at Congressional in June, he missed the cut by a comfortable margin.

After the 2014 P.G.A., Woods again took a break, still bothered by back problems. His return in January at the Phoenix Open was a disaster, including his worst round as a pro, an 82. Once again he stepped away, and his latest comeback may well begin at this year's Masters starting April 9.

Woods is undoubtedly the great golfer of his age. He is 39 and has not won a Major for almost seven years, but it would be foolish to assert that he will never be great again. But based on the historical record, it is unlikely his return to glory will come next week at Augusta.