Whose cup of tea is it?

After World War II, the Russians and English found themselves victorious over the Nazis but in the midst of ruins at home. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar finds himself in pretty much the same situation. He has wrested from Lalu Prasad a state that is crying out for succour in every direction. And because he himself had stressed so much on the need for development, people will now expect him to deliver and deliver fast; his Janata Dal(United) colleague, Sharad Yadav, has promised a change within six months. In the days to come, this will become a major headache, a problem which neither Josef Stalin nor Clement Atlee had to face because there was no such demand from their own people.

For Nitish Kumar the problem is not just confined to the issue of governance. He has his ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party, to put a spanner in his works. It is no secret that Sushil Modi and others in the saffron camp are not exactly at ease with the non-communal, liberal stance of Nitish Kumar and they are extremely unlikely to allow him to acquire a larger-than-life image. In fact even as the results were coming in on Tuesday, Sushil Modi did not dismiss a television journalist?s suggestion that his party would demand the deputy chief minister?s post. A deputy chief minister from a party with a totally different ideology can always pose problems.

The state being Bihar, the biggest problem can again be posed by the issue of caste. Ever since Vishwanath Pratap Singh brought out the Mandal Commission report from the moth balls, the upper castes in Bihar have been angry. The BJP was quick to cash in on this. For fifteen years, the upper castes have seethed in anger and now that their ?liberation? has come, will they not demand their pound of flesh? And what will be the role of the BJP then?

There are worrying signals already. The prison raid by Maoists in Jehanabad was followed by the Ranbir Sena asserting in public that it will take revenge. It is well known what such a public announcement means in Jehanabad. And when the Ranbir Sena, or any other body of hoodlums, takes to the streets, it will only add to Nitish Kumar?s problems. A problem related to law and order can only further destabilize society and make the task of getting down to development that much more difficult.

Openly, the BJP may not, and will not, support any forward caste formation to create mayhem. But even if it tries to suggest that actions beget reactions (as was done in Godhra), Nitish Kumar may have backward restlessness to deal with. It must also be kept in mind that an out of power Lalu Prasad will not see any reason why he should not take advantage of any such possible restlessness.

Another worrying signal was provided by Uma Bharti. As the results were coming in, she insisted that Hindutva continued to be the driving force for the BJP, and also in Bihar. What she said was hardly unexpected, but problems may crop up if the likes of her take the Bihar result as the green signal for a renewed mandir movement. Bihar has a 17 per cent Muslim population. Many of them have voted for Nitish Kumar, and they would surely expect the new chief minister to assert his secularism even if it means rubbing his ally the wrong way. So together with caste, communalism may also rear its ugly head, relegating the really important task of providing sarak, bijli and paani to the back of the agenda. Remember that in the last fifteen years communalism has not been an issue in Bihar.

Returning to the question of caste, one of the first reactions of political analysts was that the Biharis had at last gone beyond caste considerations. But have they really? The Rashtriya Janata Dal, supported mainly by the Yadavs, lost to JD(U) whose vote bank is made up of Yadavs too. This means that the voters did not forget their caste, they merely chose a new banner. If caste were still not a major consideration, then Nitish Kumar would not have targeted the Dalit Muslims during the campaign. The move seems to have paid off. It may also be pointed out here that in keeping with the tradition of Bihar, about 100 bahubalis have made it to the house of 243, the largest number belonging to the two National Democratic Alliance constituents. So not much change here either.

One change, however, has taken place, and a very positive one too. The Bihar voters have shown that they have finally woken up to the fact that independents do not serve any real purpose except furthering their personal cause when there is a need to make up the numbers. Indeed voters were determined to ensure there was no hung assembly. Ram Vilas Paswan became a victim of this determination. Indeed, now Paswan will have to make up his mind on whether he would remain a Lalu Prasad-baiter even while staying in the United Progressive Alliance. In the post-election scene, Nitish Kumar or the BJP can have no use for him and so, if Paswan?s Lok Janshakti Party has to play any role in Bihar, it can only be as a part of the UPA opposition. Which means he will have to make up with Lalu Prasad. The euphoria over Nitish Kumar is bound to wear off as the days pass, and a combined Lalu Prasad-Ram Vilas Paswan can become a really effective opposition, especially if Nitish Kumar comes under pressure from the BJP and chooses to look beyond backwards.

It will also be interesting to watch what shape the RJD-Congress alliance takes. If the Bihar BJP felt uneasy with Nitish Kumar, the Congress in the state too never really enjoyed tying up with Lalu Prasad. The Congress, which has come a cropper once again, might look to taking advantage of the change in Bihar to cut Lalu Prasad down to size. But that will not help its cause in Bihar. The Congress will have to reinvent itself, but only if it knows how. For now, the party?s best bet would be to forget its position in New Delhi and play second fiddle to Lalu Prasad. That will not be a very happy situation but it cannot make the UPA any more unhappy than it is right now.

It will also have to be seen how the two communist parties go about their job. For quite some time now, the two have sought to survive by holding on to the kurta tails of others. Will they finally realize that the time has come to work together and independently of other parties? If they do not, then Bihar is as good as lost to them, in the way Uttar Pradesh has been.

These are, of course, questions which have no relevance to the ordinary man in Bihar. He wants a government that functions as a government should, without having to depend solely on the good intentions of Nitish Kumar. The feudal set-up of the state is the biggest obstacle to modern governance.

Will Nitish Kumar be able to ring in any change? How will he deal with corrupt practices which are a part of Bihar?s daily life? Will industrialists now take interest in Bihar whose killing fields will certainly not start growing crops from tomorrow? The chief minister will not only have to deliver, but do so quickly. If he means business, Nitish Kumar must be prepared for a crown of thorns when he is sworn in, ironically, by the same governor who had stood between him and the throne only a few months back.