Political alliances, a wag summed it up nicely, are often a marriage of convenience between strange bedfellows. In poll-bound Bihar, the Lok Janshakti Party has seemingly decided to reveal the undercurrent of competition — animosity? — in the bond that the Bharatiya Janata Party professedly shares with its partner, the Janata Dal (United). The LJP, complaining of ideological differences, has decided to part ways with Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), while remaining hitched to the BJP at the national level. The reason for this split is to be found not in ideological spots but political pragmatism. Mr Kumar is seeking to return to power for another term. Chirag Paswan, who is now helming the LJP, may have sensed a degree of public disillusionment with Mr Kumar. This may have encouraged Mr Paswan to fight the polls on his own, hoping that an improved showing — his party had won 2 and 3 seats, respectively, in 2015 and 2010 — would elevate the LJP to the role of the kingmaker. The BJP would not be unhappy with the turn of events: it believes that it is time to stake claim for Bihar as a senior partner of the alliance or, still better, with a bit of help from outside. The BJP’s optimism is based on two factors. The Opposition — in the absence of Lalu Prasad’s formidable presence and experience — is a Grand Alliance only in name. Moreover, Mr Kumar, the BJP argues, has benefited from the charisma of Narendra Modi and won polls earlier. A rag-tag Opposition, coupled with Mr Kumar’s own vulnerability, may have emboldened the BJP. A good showing by the LJP — it has the ability to sink its teeth into the JD(U)’s vote share — may help the BJP bag the throne by rendering Mr Kumar and the JD(U) dispensable.

There may even be a moral underpinning to this tale of shifting allegiances. Mr Kumar has himself to blame for his enhanced dependence on the BJP. His propensity for jockeying for power — he had joined forces with the Rashtriya Janata Dal to rout the BJP in 2015, only to dump Mr Prasad’s party and return to power in the BJP’s embrace — may have dented his image considerably. The raging pandemic and a crippled economy — Bihar has a significant migrant population that is facing difficulties — may have dimmed Mr Kumar’s halo further.