Ghulam Nabi Azad’s observation on India’s population growth was a warning that was long overdue. Ever since Sanjay Gandhi’s misguided, hugely controversial and unpopular birth-control excesses of 1975-77, birth and population control in our over-populated country became, and has remained, a taboo in the public domain. Population became such a politically sensitive subject that no politician or political party in India was ready to acknowledge that the country was in real danger of moving from being over-populated to becoming hyper- populated, followed by disastrous consequences.

It began to be believed that with economic growth and the rise of the middle classes, the birth rates in India would get gradually moderated, eventually reaching a manageable level of equilibrium. It was hoped that the slowing of population growth would be supported by a rise in female education and literacy, followed by a gradual rise in the age of marriage, together with universal primary education becoming a fundamental right. The rapid growth of India’s population was seen as an asset that would yield India a demographic advantage and hence an enormous economic dividend. The Chinese one-child family was heavily criticized as it was leading to a skewed sex ratio, with males outnumbering females, and to the possibility of a higher proportion of old people in China by the middle of the 21st century, while India would continue to be a country of the young.

While there is an element of truth in these arguments regarding population, India is in a much greater danger of facing adverse consequences from hyper-population, and some of which are upon us already.

The migration of individuals as well as whole families from rural India to its cities, suburbs and towns is now a rapidly increasing phenomenon, leading to unabated over-population in the metros and to the growth of several small and medium-sized cities across India. While the mobility of the rural population has some positive impact in generating employment, rise of entrepreneurship and other economic advantages, the population explosion in major cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Calcutta, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Chennai is creating unmanageable problems of congestion, leading to the growth of slums, the breakdown of law and order, because of which the cities and their civil societies are experiencing huge strain. Many of the cities that had a population of 5-8 million and were reasonably well-managed until 20 or 30 years ago are struggling to manage populations of 12-15 million (and still rising). Managing a big Indian city is becoming like managing a small nation.

The transition from being reasonably manageable to the present state, where many of the cities can no longer be adequately managed, is a phenomenon that can be best called the “tipping point”. The tipping point is the point at which order gradually gives way to disorder and, eventually, to chaos. Cities like Mumbai, Calcutta, Bangalore and Ahmedabad have reached, or passed, their tipping points. There are certain characteristics which signal the tipping point. For example, the governments in charge of states in which these cities are located gradually get weakened in their ability to govern or administer. The municipal corporations, which are meant to serve a manageable population and built-up area, now find themselves overwhelmed by vast populations and unplanned urban development that proves to be less and less manageable. So, there is a competition between the service-seekers, the citizens, to capture the capacity and resources of the service-givers, which then leads to widespread rent-seeking to a point where rent-seeking has become natural and legitimate in urban transactions. The other visible manifestation is the rise of land sharks and a powerful builders’ lobby. As per-capita land availability diminishes, land and house prices shoot up and the land mafia of builders and brokers acquire huge power and become a source of political funding.

After the tipping point, a number of other consequences also follow. The traditional law-and-order machinery is no longer able to control and cater to the needs of an ever-growing population. The elected leaders suffer from a sense of helplessness and turn to nurture their rural constituencies rather than manage the problems of the urban centres. Public amenities like transport, sanitation, educational institutions and hospitals gradually become dysfunctional, creating a sense of distress and helplessness among those who have to avail themselves of these services. Since normal housing becomes unaffordable for the waves of migrants to the city, huge numbers of illegal slums crop up to provide affordable shelter and a new class of slumlords begin to exercise their power through fear, extortion and coercion, becoming alternate power centres on their way to being tomorrow’s elected political leaders. If this state of affairs continues in the years to come, it would eventually lead to the collapse of civil society in the not-too-distant future.

One of the ways of trying to restore a sense of some order in these chaotic cities is for the political and civic administration to consider demarcating more manageable entities within the mega-cities, made up of populations of, say, 3-5 million. In some respects, this has happened in the spill-over townships extending out of a city like Mumbai, where the distant suburbs like Thane-Belapur and Navi Mumbai have their own civic administrations and, in some cases, guardian ministers who nurture these self-sustaining satellites and ease the load on the main city.

The main city of Mumbai can only become manageable once more if, say, North, Central and South Mumbai had dedicated municipal corporations. The Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission could have, as its central objective, the demarcating of manageable contiguous units in each mega-city for the purposes of governance and providing essential civic services. The challenges of such reordering are not inconsiderable, but doing nothing is even more dangerous. Creating entities that can be better managed can only be interim solutions. India must publicly acknowledge that it faces the dangerous consequences of hyper-population. Besides every Indian citizen, the country’s leadership must see the issue as one of the highest importance, to be dealt with as one of the biggest challenges facing the country.

The Union health minister, Ghulam Nabi Azad, would not have raised the subject in the public domain without a political green signal. His message is likely to be received with a great sense of relief, because India’s problem of hyper-population weighs on the back of the mind of every Indian. What steps the citizens take to control the size of their families will be entirely in their own hands, but what the government must do is publicly acknowledge that India faces the dangers of a population explosion, and that something must be done to reverse the trend.

While education becomes more accessible, female literacy will grow, India’s economic growth will be sustained, more people will move into the middle class and inclusive growth would spreads far and wide — all of this would be more effective and visible if we begin to deal with the challenge of population explosion as a matter of national urgency. This is the only way India will be able to pull back from the precipice of the “tipping point”.