When the maverick ruling party legislator, Subramanian Swamy, decided to train his guns on the Reserve Bank of India governor, Raghuram Rajan, and lobby for his removal, it was clear that attention would no longer be on something as banal as interest rate cuts at Tuesday's monetary policy review. Instead, the paparazzi wanted to see whether Mr Rajan would fire a fusillade against Mr Swamy or vent his views on a possible extension after his term expires on September 4. No RBI governor since 1992 has been denied a second term. But to his credit, Mr Rajan decided not to do either.
The RBI governor, who has cut the policy repo rate by 1.5 percentage points since January 2015 to 6.5 per cent, decided to stand pat because of the sudden spike in the April retail inflation to 5.39 per cent. With crude oil prices starting to nudge above $ 50 a barrel and other commodity prices showing an upward bias after hitting a trough last year, the RBI governor has wisely chosen not to trim rates. The markets and economists had anticipated the move. But it will anger people like Mr Swamy who believe that a cut in rates will kick-start the stuttering sectors in the economy even though there is no evidence based on past cuts to back that belief. The RBI is officially committed to a clearly enunciated glide path for inflation under an agreement signed with the finance ministry in February last year. Internally, the RBI has set for itself a target of 5 per cent by March 2017 and roughly 4 per cent the following year. Mr Rajan hates labels. In September 2015, when he surprised markets by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, he shrugged off the market's moniker of Santa Claus. When asked about his hawkish commentary in his latest policy statement, he said he disliked bird analogies. Central bankers are often dubbed hawks or doves, depending on whether they tend to cut rates or not. Most do not object and it is odd to see Mr Rajan turn prickly just when the decision on his extension enters the final stretch. Market pundits are already predicting a meltdown in the market if Mr Rajan is forced to go. For now, the bulls and the bears prowling the stock markets are evenly divided on whether there will be another rate cut before Mr Rajan's term expires. Time will tell whether fur or feathers will fly on Dalal Street and Mint Street respectively when the decision on the governor is taken on Raisina Hill.