 |
| Smart move |
United Bihar had contributed handsomely to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s political fortunes, giving it as many as 41 members of parliament out of the 182 it had in the recently-dissolved Lok Sabha. Thus the state known as the karmbhoomi of socialists like Jayaprakash Narayan and Karpoori Thakur helped the rightist Atal Bihari Vajpayee gain a comfortable majority with the help of other National Democratic Alliance constituents in the 13th Lok Sabha. Riding on the “feel good” factor, the BJP aims at securing 275 to 300 seats on its own in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. But the party can hardly expect to repeat its 1999 dream performance in a divided country.
More than the “Vajpayee factor”, what actually worked well for the BJP last time was its success in cobbling together disparate groups or persons, with their solid caste votes, under the NDA banner. This was a significant achievement in a region where the caste factor plays a decisive role. What provided the cutting edge were Ram Vilas Paswan and Nitish Kumar, who command as much control over the Paswans and Kurmis as Laloo Prasad Yadav does over the Yadavs and Muslims. A solid alliance among the then Samata Party of Nitish Kumar and George Fernandes, Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan and Janata Dal (U) of Sharad Yadav ensured a straight contest between the BJP-led alliance and the Rashtriya Janata Dal in 1999.
The alliance also ensured that the upper castes and the Dalits — mainly the Paswans and Kurmis who call the shots in Patna, Nalanda and Barh Lok Sabha seats in central Bihar — got united under the NDA, eclipsing Laloo Prasad Yadav’s Muslim-Yadav combination. In fact, in 1999, the wily RJD chief suffered the biggest political setback as he himself lost to Sharad Yadav in Madhepura. Thanks to division of votes among the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the Congress, the RJD and the Left, which contested separately, the BJP merrily took advantage of the opposition’s disunity and won 10 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in the Santhal Parganas and Chhotanagpur region (now Jharkhand).
But the scenario this time round does not augur well for the NDA. Even the BJP knows that it will find it hard to retain its 1999 position in Jharkhand with the Congress, JMM, RJD, Communist Party of India putting up a united front against the NDA. Despite the Congress and the JMM going on a “friendly fight” in Rajmahal and Godda, the opposition alliance is largely intact as the JMM-Congress, RJD and CPI have ensured a direct fight with the BJP on several important seats including Hazaribagh (where the external affairs minister, Yashwant Sinha, is seeking re-election), Singhbhum, Lohardaga, Khunti, Dumka, Ranchi and Jamshedpur. Though a few local parties have put up their candidates in these seats, it is going to be a straight contest between the BJP and the Congress-led opposition on at least six to seven Jharkhand seats.
Contrary to 1999, it is the NDA camp which is disunited in Jharkhand this time. The Janata Dal (U) has fielded its candidates against the BJP in as many as five of the 14 Jharkhand Lok Sabha seats. Besides, the BJP faces internal rebellion with the former member of parliament from Hazaribagh, Mahabir Lal Vishwakarma, locking horns with Sinha in Hazaribagh. Also in Bihar, the opposition has made some smart moves. The RJD-led alliance has brought Paswan to its fold, giving the latter as many as eight seats. Paswan’s entry into the opposition is bound to have adverse effects for the BJP.
It is important to note that though the NDA secured 41 seats in 1999, it polled only four per cent more votes than the RJD-led alliance in Bihar. The RJD-Congress however managed only 12 seats. The margin of only four per cent made a huge difference in the tally. So if Paswan gives to the RJD-led alliance three to four per cent more Dalit votes in Bihar, he will tilt the balance heavily in favour of the opposition in the state.
In 1999, the battle was between a “tainted” Laloo Yadav and a “clean” Vajpayee-led NDA. From 1997 to 1999, the RJD supremo had stayed in jail for months in connection with fodder scam which the BJP had exploited to the hilt. This time, the NDA has fielded another equally important accused in the fodder scam and former Bihar chief minister, Jagannath Mishra, from the Jhanjharpur seat in Mithila. Thus the BJP can no longer raise the bogey of the fodder scam and corruption against Laloo Yadav.
This is not to suggest that the RJD-led alliance has become strong enough to totally reverse the 1999 Lok Sabha trends in Bihar and Jharkhand. In spite of expanding the alliance, Laloo Yadav has had to face rebellion in his rank and file prior to the polls. Two ministers in Rabri Devi’s government, Purnamasi Ram and Chhedi Paswan, have resigned to join the NDA camp. Besides, in what appears to be a tacit bid to help the BJP in Bihar, the Samajwadi Party has fielded over 10 Yadav and Muslim candidates in Bihar. It’s a forgone conclusion that the Samajwadi Party will not win seats in Bihar. Yet it can queer the pitch for RJD on some seats for it has fielded Yadavs and Muslims.
However, the BJP, despite its “feel good” campaign throughout India, is not feeling particularly good in either Bihar or Jharkhand. Its star candidate, Yashwant Sinha, is fighting with his back to the wall in Hazaribagh against the joint opposition candidate, Bhuvaneshwar Mehta of CPI. And the man referred to as “vikas purush” in Bihar, Nitish Kumar, has decided to contest from two seats in Bihar — Barh and Nalanda. Kumar had scraped through with a margin of only a little over 1,200 votes in Barh in 1999. Obviously, the Janata Dal (U) stalwart this time has opted for the safe Kurmi-dominated Nalanda seat too, sending the prime minister’s “trouble-shooter”, George Fernandes to Muzaffarpur. Fernandes will find the going tough against Laloo Yadav and Paswan in Muzaffarpur, which has sizeable population of Yadavs, Muslims and Dalits as well. Yet Fernandes had won from Muzaffarpur thrice in the past, although he had done it with the support of Laloo Yadav and Paswan, both now on the opposite side of the divide.
