No important political leader has visited Myanmar in the last 13 years. During this period of New Delhi's isolation, the Chinese have expanded their influence and Myanmar's foreign policy is now being drafted in Beijing. The strategic importance of this country - which shares a border stretching for about 1,600 kilometres with sensitive Indian states like Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram, as well as Bangladesh - has been lost over the years. Yet it was in Myanmar that the Indian troops fought many battles against the Japanese during the World War II.
The visit of the Indian foreign minister, Jaswant Singh, to Myanmar, in early February, along with a large delegation of representatives from the eastern states, though much delayed, is a step in the right direction. It is imperative that the Indo-Myanmar interaction should not end with the opening of the Tamu-Kalewa road, now that the government has gained the necessary mileage from its inauguration. Myanmar's growing closeness with China and the initiatives that the Americans have taken to restore democracy in that country, could well turn it into a battleground between the two.
Junta's bête noir
Myanmar faces several crucial issues in the near future. The leader of the National League for Democracy and the military junta's bête noir, Aung San Suu Kyi, wants the military to quit and democracy established in its place. Therefore, she continues to be the chief obstacle to the future ambitions of the erstwhile state law and order restoration council which has now been renamed as the state peace and development council.
The problems faced by Myanmar's military junta are innumerable - the continuing insurgency and pro-democracy movements in the country, the threat of an election under the supervision of the United Nations, the redrafting of the constitution to enable the military rulers retain a tight grip on the country, foreign pressure and allegations of human rights violations.
Suu Kyi, who was placed under house arrest from 1989 to 1995, has been detained from time to time by the military for short intervals of time. The SPDC is yet to decide whether to charge her or set her free. Suu Kyi has also been given the option of leaving Myanmar for good, a choice she is unlikely to make given that she enjoys tremendous international support and sympathy. Suu Kyi, the winner of the 1991 Nobel prize for peace,
will probably go on to stay in her country.
Closed to the world
The military too is becoming stronger. With a state-controlled media and stringent laws, it now has better control over the country. Foreign investment is coming into the country in the form of joint ventures and business investments. The armed forces too have been expanding with massive arms supplies pouring in from Beijing, in accordance with a Sino-Myanmar agreement signed in the early Nineties. It is likely that the Myanmarese army will become as dependent on Chinese defence hardware as Pakistan's is today.
The lack of any free flow of information from Myanmar to the outside world, makes things even more difficult for the SPDC and only serves to tarnish its image in the international community. According to an Amnesty International report released some time back, life in Myanmar is characterized by fear, intimidation and widespread human rights violations.
It is in this context that the United States sees a role for India in its foreign policy. India should be prepared to see fresh initiatives by the US to ensure the restoration of democracy in Myanmar. It is very likely that there may be pressure on the SPDC to let Suu Kyi stay on in the country and permit her to campaign for the elections. Realizing the possibility of such a scenario, the military has embarked on a plan to pre-empt this by redrafting the constitution. This tool has been used to delay elections on one pretext or another.
From the Indian point of view, it is unbelievable that no Indian dignitary has visited Yangon since Rajiv Gandhi's visit to the city in 1987. Cooperation between Myanmar and India would have helped the latter control illicit drug trade across its borders as well as put an end to the smuggling of arms to the United Liberation Front of Asom and other terrorist outfits, thereby controlling terrorism.