It seems that the European Union countries have had enough of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's brutal tactics. Last month, the Netherlands, Germany and Austria banned Turkey's pro-referendum rallies in their countries. The referendum, to be held on April 16, seeks to consolidate Erdogan's powers. Turkey has retaliated strongly, calling the Dutch and German governments "Nazi remnants". Political campaigns conducted by foreign candidates are common in Europe. It was, therefore, surprising that the Turkish rallies were banned.
Rising unemployment, the arrival of immigrants and disillusionment with the EU have led to a surge in the popularity of right-wing parties across Europe. Many of these parties are also exploiting public resentment against the EU's 'appeasement' of Turkey: the latter had taken the responsibility of managing the refugee crisis by signing the one-for-one migrant deal. The EU, an upholder of human rights, has failed to take concrete action against Turkey for its violations following the attempted coup last year. The EU has also ignored Turkey's role in deepening the crisis in Syria. The Dutch were heading for general elections when they decided to ban the pro-referendum rallies. Germany's federal elections are scheduled for October. The bans were intended to shore up the popularity of the respective dispensations by countering the far-right and, second, give to their citizens a hint of affirmative action against Turkey.
Gaining popularity is on Erdogan's mind as well. Turkey's meddling in Syria and its worsening relationship with the Kurdish people have adversely affected the lives of Turkish citizens. Armed conflicts have become a regular affair, taking a toll on the nation's economy. The lira had touched a record low against the dollar. Erdogan's persistent crackdown on dissent has added to the anger. Since the coup in July, teachers, activists, journalists and some soldiers have been arrested on suspicion of conspiring against Erdogan.
Ironically, the ban on rallies helps Erdogan in several ways. It deflects, though temporarily, the attention of the Turkish people from internal disputes. It also helps the president whip up ultra-nationalism by projecting EU nations as xenophobic and hostile to Islam. The ban also strengthens Erdogan's argument that Turkey needs a strong statesman, who is not afraid to stand up to Europe even at the cost of jeopardizing diplomatic relations.
But the ban can also be a tipping point for Erdogan. He had resented the lack of support from his European allies when he accused his adversary, Fethullah Gülen, of masterminding the coup. Incidentally, a leaked report from EU intelligence services stated that Gülen did not order the coup. Then, there is the other irritant: Turkey's failure to join the EU. The deal on refugees was signed by Turkey on the condition that it would be made a member of the union. The monetary pledges have been honoured by the EU but Turkey's membership is yet to come through.
But it is not as if Ankara always plays second fiddle to the EU. Turkey's contribution to the NATO - it has the second largest armed force in the organization - helps its arrogance. The deal on migrants is another bargaining chip. Its growing closeness to Russia has emboldened it further.
Yet, Erdogan cannot afford to antagonize the EU. Ankara is heavily dependent on it for trade. A large Turkish diaspora resides in Europe. By calling his European partners names, Erdogan has greatly hampered the diaspora's integration process, especially at a time when ethnic discrimination is on the rise in Europe. He should stop making empty threats, such as tearing up the one-for-one deal, because he needs the deal as much as the EU. The pact helps Erdogan get financial aid and the EU manage the refugee crisis. Hurling abuses at European governments is hardly the ideal way of ironing out the differences.
