The recent Sample Registration Survey report revealed that West Bengal’s total fertility rate has declined by 17.6%, from 1.7 in 2013 to 1.3 in 2023. The corresponding national figure is 16.7%. The TFR refers to the average number of children expected to be born per woman during her reproductive years. India’s as well as Bengal’s TFR is way below the replacement level of 2.1 — the average number of children a woman must give birth to in order to ensure that the population remains stable. A combination of factors, such as adoption of birth control practices, changes to the institution of marriage, and increased economic opportunities, among others, is responsible for the fall in TFR. While Bengal’s urban TFR is the lowest in the country, its rural TFR is the second lowest. The rural-urban differential is a feature of demographic transition whereby declines in fertility are expected to spread from cities to the villages. But Bengal exemplifies an intriguing anomaly in this context; rural Bengal recorded a sharper fall (16.7%) than urban Bengal (8.3%).

Education is a powerful force in enhancing women’s agency, enabling them to make informed life choices. That literacy has a direct impact on fertility was laid out by the SRS report. Literacy levels among women in Bengal belonging to the 15-49 age cohort have been found to be the highest in India. But what is worrying is that the age-specific fertility rate for women aged between 15 and 19 in Bengal is extremely high — 23.3 — compared to the national average of 11; it is also the highest for the 20-24 age bracket. Yet, the corresponding ASFR for the 25-29 age group is the lowest in the country. Given Bengal’s high literacy and increased school enrolment, what can explain the spike in fertility levels among underage and young girls? Child marriage, the SRS report suggests, can be a factor to explain this concentrated early fertility. The state has the highest number of females getting married before the age of 18 years, both in urban and rural areas. Dominant patriarchal notions about women’s security and chastity, poverty and lack of awareness influence early marriages. Welfare interventions like the Kanyashree Prakalpa — a cash transfer programme to improve the status of girls — are yet to have the desired effect. Education’s success in arresting TFR and its failure to have an impact on early marriage in Bengal require deeper analysis.