With Donald Trump imposing 50% tariffs on Indian exports to the United States of America since yesterday, ostensibly on account of New Delhi’s decision to continue to buy Russian crude, the focus of the nation and policy analysts is likely to be on the country’s export sector and the economy for a while. The concern is understandable. An estimated 66% of India’s exports to the US are likely to be adversely impacted, with textiles, gems and jewellery, auto parts, among other sectors, bearing the brunt. The speculation is that 0.8 percentage points of India’s economic growth could be shaved off this year and the next. The economic pains of Mr Trump’s weaponisation of tariffs cannot be wished away. But they are only a part of a bigger problem — that of an unpredictable, maverick US president. Mr Trump’s mercurial — some would say mercantile — attitude has already forced New Delhi and much of the world back to the proverbial blackboard on matters of regional and global security and geostrategy as well. Be it Mr Trump’s repeated, contentious claim of having stopped the military escalation between India and Pakistan, his refusal to blame Pakistan for being instrumental in lighting the fuse of a military confrontation by having its shadowy hand in the Pahalgam terror attack, hosting an adversarial Pakistan army chief for lunch, or penalising India for its legitimate engagement with Russia, New Delhi has been made to realise that the American president does not care to play by established convention. Indeed, historical precedent appears to matter little to Mr Trump who is often prone to conflating the political with personal whims and gain. This may not augur well for the structures that have kept India’s engagement with the US on track or for the outcome of the talks for a trade deal that New Delhi is currently pursuing with Washington.

How does India play ball with a president who does not play by the rulebook? Such an uncharted territory would undoubtedly be a test for India’s diplomacy. The stormy waters notwithstanding, the ship of Indian diplomacy must be anchored to a template. Relying on personal equations — Prime Minister Narendra Modi burnt his fingers with Mr Trump on this one — cannot be the way forward. Instead, certain objectives should steer New Delhi’s course. Foremost among these are national interest and pragmatism, the kind that India’s foreign policy Establishment has been prioritising. A supple approach — India’s recent outreach to China is an instance — instead of being tethered to the pole of inflexibility is also necessary.