Everybody in India seems to be ruing the fact that we are going to miss the demographic dividend. That’s not because we don’t have the workers. The current thinking is that they lack the necessary skills.

There is an anecdote in this context about a Calcutta factory (in the days when Calcutta was still Calcutta) that imported an advanced milling machine from Germany. The manufacturer offered to send down a trainer, but his airfare and stay (at the Grand Hotel, no less) needed big bucks. So the management decided they would figure it out on their own. They couldn’t. But hope was at hand. They discovered that a rival manufacturer now closed down (in those days it was the natural fate of industrial units in Calcutta to close down) had actually installed one of these machines and used it for a while. A detective agency was hired to trace one of the workers experienced in using the machine. Two weeks later, the agency came up trumps. An experienced worker was discovered. Where? At the company which was seeking him itself. But wasn't he aware of the manhunt for somebody like him? Perhaps he did. But his stock answer was: “Nobody told me.”

It’s not just on the shop floor. Every company has a lot of talent it is not aware of. Some of it may be irrelevant. How do you use a skilled acupuncturist or homeopath, for instance? But it is the responsibility of the HR department to keep such “skills” on record. You never can tell. Because Bajaj Auto CEO Rajiv Bajaj is a great believer in homeopathy, some people in the company with similar beliefs can hope to find a channel for their unusual pursuits.

Employees are of two types. One is the sort that is always trying to do something more. He joins evening classes. He asks for permission to help out in some other department. He is clearly ambitious. He and others like him will succeed. One of them will make CEO some day. Most employees — of the other type — don’t envy him at all. They live their own quiet lives, hiding their abilities under a bushel. If the company sends them for training, they will accept with a grumble. They see it as a way of getting more work out of them. They would rather live in an oasis keeping both technology and competition at bay.

It doesn’t work anymore. The pace of change is too fast. But you will find employers also preferring to remain in the past. Everyone seems to agree that the initiative for training should come from the management (see box). It very rarely does. Half the CEOs will tell you it is pointless training a worker who will then use his additional abilities to jump ship. It is better to force the workers to upgrade themselves, on their own time, with their own money. There is a greater chance that you will lose him. But for a company staffed by the mediocre, finding a replacement for a mediocre job isn’t too difficult.

Over the next 10 years, the working age population in the country is going to increase in leaps and bounds. The Cassandras say they won’t get jobs, though jobs will be available in plenty. In the US, there is a huge jobs crisis. Yet a survey by the Manufacturing Institute reports that 67 per cent of the manufacturers polled say that there is a moderate to severe shortage of qualified talent. The career advisory board at DeVry University reports that hiring managers say 72 per cent of jobseekers don’t have the necessary skills. When the innumerate want to become Wall Street fatcats, you can’t help a mismatch.

But is the situation in India so bad? There are dissenters. Indians are excellent at multi-tasking. Years of adversity have taught them how to fall on their feet. The migrant to the US or the Gulf works hard when he is there. He comes back to India and lazes. The government's employment schemes are creating a nation on the dole; who will work when he doesn’t have to? But when his back is to the wall, the Indian knows how to change and survive. There is no proof. We can only be sure when the demographic dividend rolls in.