Glacial lake outburst leading to floods is a serious threat for Jammu and Kashmir's Kishtwar district, a comprehensive risk assessment has stated, warning that it puts lives, infrastructure, and the fragile ecosystem in grave danger.

According to the GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood) Management Plan for Kishtwar 2024-25, the tehsils of Padder, Machail, Dachhan, Marwah, and Warwan are in peril of being the worst-affected due to their proximity to glacial lakes.

The report notes that these regions, along with the Kishtwar High Altitude National Park, remain highly vulnerable to sudden flooding.

"These regions are especially vulnerable due to their proximity to glacial lakes, making them prone to sudden flooding events that can have devastating impacts on local communities, infrastructure, and the environment," the report cautioned.

The danger is not theoretical.

Chishoti village in Padder tehsil, the last motorable stop en route to the Machail Mata temple, was ravaged by a cloudburst-triggered flash flood on August 14 during the yatra, killing 65 people and injuring over 115.

The report underlined that critical infrastructure such as roads, schools, hospitals, and government buildings in these tehsils are "at considerable risk".

"The tehsils of Marwah and Warwan, often designated as ‘Shadow Areas’ due to their remoteness, house low-lying settlements and agricultural communities that face increased vulnerability due to limited disaster preparedness and emergency response capacities," it added.

Hydroelectric projects under CVPPL Limited, including the Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Dangduru, are also susceptible to high risks. "Rising water levels or potential dam breaches could threaten project infrastructure, disrupt operations, and increase downstream flood risk," the report said.

It highlights major vulnerabilities across four tehsils of the Kishtwar district due to the threat of glacial lake outburst floods.

The report highlighted significant ecological concerns as well.

"Contamination of local water sources due to floodwaters could further impact public health and ecological balance," it said, while warning of potential habitat loss and biodiversity threats in the Kishtwar High Altitude National Park.

Two lakes -- Mundiksar and Hangu -- have been classified as high-risk, while Palta Pani and another unnamed lake have been categorised as moderate-risk.

Explaining the scientific basis of the warning, the report said, "The presence of multiple glacial lakes at varying elevations and their proximity to each other heightens the risk of outburst floods, which could be triggered by factors such as rapid ice melt, landslides, or seismic activity." Kishtwar, located in the Western Himalayas, has 197 glacial lakes -- the highest in Jammu and Kashmir -- and accounts for over one-third of all such lakes in the Union Territory.

Many of these are small, but recent decades have seen a rapid expansion due to climate change, the report said.

"The accelerated retreat of glaciers, driven by rising temperatures, has resulted in the formation and expansion of several glacial lakes in the region, increasing the risk of GLOFs." The report called for immediate mitigation measures, including continuous monitoring, early warning systems, drainage and reinforcement of moraine dams, risk mapping, and community preparedness. "Local communities in Kishtwar must be educated about the risks of GLOFs and trained in emergency response," it stressed.

About long-term strategies, it recommended climate-resilient construction, afforestation to stabilise slopes, and sustained research and development on glacial dynamics. It also suggested earmarking a portion of District Planning and Development Council funds specifically for GLOF preparedness.

"Our commitment to safeguarding lives and infrastructure against GLOFs reflects a broader vision of building a resilient future for Kishtwar," the plan said.

"Through sustained efforts, we can significantly mitigate the risks posed by natural hazards and foster a safe, secure environment for current and future generations," it added.

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