Former Union finance minister P. Chidambaram spoke to Sambit Saha of The Telegraph before the launch of his book Fearless in Opposition: Power and Accountability in Calcutta on Saturday. The topics ranged from political freedom and the Congress leadership to the demonetisation debate and economist Jagdish Bhagwati's attack on Amartya Sen. Chidambaram also suggested a two-month "trial run" for the goods and services tax (GST). Excerpts from the interview:
Q. The title of your book seems to suggest there's been an attempt to stifle the Opposition's voice in India. Is it unique to this regime?
A. No one complains that there was an attempt to stifle dissent during the 10 years of the UPA. Nor was there any significant complaint when Mr (Atal Bihari) Vajpayee was the Prime Minister.
But in the last three years, there's been this growing clamour that dissent is being stifled. There is growing intolerance and many sections of the people are living in fear. That is why I have called the book Fearless in Opposition - because the alternative voice can only be expressed by a political Opposition.
Q. President Pranab Mukherjee too has said the country needs a strong Opposition standing guard. Isn't it the Opposition's responsibility to be strong? Can you really blame those in the government for failing to give you space?
A. Nobody is asking for space. Whatever space we have has been given by the people. But the government can't shrink that space. Look what's happening in Goa and Manipur. The largest space was given to the Congress (by the voters) and a smaller one to the BJP. But unashamedly, the BJP poaches all the space not given to it and tries to enlarge its space through blatant horse-trading.
In Goa, the Goa Freedom Party fielded some candidates. All of them ex-Congressmen. The Congress left three seats uncontested. There was an undeclared understanding between the GFP and the Congress and three of those guys won. And then the BJP takes them as ally. Between midnight and 4am, the bargain is struck. What is it but shameless horse-trading?
Q. I was listening to the President yesterday. It appears he has read your book from what he said - that we must always guard against majoritarianism, that those in power must involve the public and take the entire nation with them. Were you always on the same page with him when he was your colleague in the government?
A. On a liberal political view, we are on the same page. I'm told he used the phrase "standing guard". I don't know whether he took it from the title of an earlier book ( Standing Guard: A Year in Opposition by Chidambaram) or picked it on his own. But even if he has been marginally influenced by my book, I'm very happy.
Q. There is a surge in conservatism across the world, and liberal values are under threat. Can we expect to be isolated from that trend?
A. Countries where political intolerance is growing are Russia, China, Turkey.... Surely, India does not want to be bracketed with these countries on political freedom. But in the US, the day President (Donald) Trump was sworn in, that very day hundreds of liberal businessmen met at another place and vowed to defeat him in the next election. That is open society.
Q. Surely this is not happening in India?
A. I cannot imagine even 10 businessmen getting together and criticising any government (in India).
Q. Let me turn to some of the economic issues. GST - is it a done deal?
A. It looks like that and I'm happy. Except that whether (a launch on) July 1 is a done deal. Parthasarathi Som (former adviser to the Union finance minister) cautioned that the government should not rush GST through.
Q. Would you suggest an October 1 launch?
A. According to me there are three things that have to be done. One, the laws have to be passed after due deliberation. The Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha passed two laws. The other laws have to be passed by 29 (state) legislatures. There must proper deliberation instead of rushing through with it after two or three hours of debate.
Also, industry must get ready. Large industry may be ready by hiring some top grade accountants, but what about the small and medium businessmen at the local level? You have to give them time to adapt to the new (tax) regime. Every transaction must have a paper trail. So people should be ready.
Number three, the GST network is said to be ready. Accepted. But you have to run it to see and only then will the glitches be known. Glitches have to be ironed out. Otherwise, there will be too many disputes between states. You have to give it a trial run. The GST has to be introduced on a trial basis for two months.
When all the glitches are ironed out, the final GST will come. I think the correct thing would be to set October 1 as the start date. What is the big hurry when we waited so many years?
Q. You say in your book that the demonetisation will shave 1 percentage point off the GDP (gross domestic product). But the CSO (Central Statistics Office) numbers appear to rebut your claim.
A. No. The CSO numbers have already indicated that 1 per cent of the GDP has been shaved off. Look at the last four quarters of the GDP and GVA (gross value added) numbers. If you go by GDP numbers from the 2016 calendar (year), the GDP has already been shaved by 1 per cent and GVA by 3 per cent.
Q. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi says only hard work, not Harvard (where Chidambaram, among others, studied), works.
A. Nobody is disputing that hard work pays off. But surely, Harvard helps!
Q. But if criticism comes from an eminent economist like Jagdish Bhagwati, who said that the PM's success in Uttar Pradesh meant that Amartya Sen and his friends - I guess that includes you - who argued that the demonetisation would hurt growth have been "humiliated and exposed" like the Congress, what do you have to say about that?
A. We have lost the political argument but the economic argument is not lost. It has proved correct by the numbers put out by the CSO.
Q. But Bhagwati says that growth has not been hurt.
A. Sitting in the cool climes of Columbia and travelling around the world, we can be disdainful of poverty and the lack of jobs and infrastructure in India. He must be living in India, having the experience of living here, before he says everything is fine.
Q. Bhagwati also said that - and I quote - "not knowing finance, he (Sen) made the mistake of taking the strange position that the demonetisation action was despotic".... You know public finance like nobody else, but it appears that you made the same "mistake"....
A. Well, if you say Amartya Sen did not know finance, then we must also say that the Nobel Committee did not know who deserves the Nobel Prize, Amartya Sen or Jagdish Bhagwati.
Q. It appears that the growth numbers for the third quarter of the last fiscal year (2015-16) were lowered and that had a salutary effect on the growth rate during the demonetisation months (third quarter) of the current fiscal year.
A. Yes, this is a bit of a mystery and that is why a lot of people have questioned it. Not only Indians but eminent economists and rating agencies questioned it. Somebody said India is bracketed with China when it comes to transparency about numbers.
Q. But you have lost the political argument. If people have lost jobs and businesses have been hurt, there seems to be no reflection of this in the state election results.
A. No election is decided on one issue. If the UP victory is a vote for demonetisation, then you must say that Punjab was a vote against demonetisation, and Goa and Manipur too.
Q. Do you think there will be an Opposition that can stand up to Modi in 2019?
A. India is not one election. It's a collection of many elections. There will be a credible Opposition in many states. There may not be in some states. How it will work out nationwide is too early to say.
Q. Do you think the Congress under Rahul Gandhi can put up a credible Opposition?
A. That's our plan, that's our hope. But we need to do a lot of preparatory work. But I hope the Congress leadership would be able to do that.
Q. So would you go to the polls with Rahul Gandhi as the face of the party?
A. That's for the party to decide.
Q. He still has your vote of confidence?
A. The party has elected him vice-president and at the last working committee, the party said he must take over as president.
