Chennai, Sept. 25: Call it the churn before the anticipated churn.
Hours away from judgment day, the question now swirling over Tamil Nadu’s political landscape is whether Jayalalithaa would return as chief minister after a special court in Bangalore pronounces its verdict in a disproportionate assets case against her.
AIADMK leaders, state officials and Jayalalithaa’s political rivals are all waiting for Saturday, when judge Michael D’Cunha is due to give his verdict.
Jayalalithaa’s authority over her AIADMK will remain unchallenged even if she is found guilty. But her absence from the helm of government is bound to affect the administration and decelerate the state’s growth since whoever she nominates in her place will lack the political authority that rides with the chief minister’s post.
In 2001, when the Supreme Court had unseated her, a political lightweight like O. Panneerselvam, the present finance minister, had filled in till she got acquitted by the high court in the TANSI case and was re-elected as an MLA.
Panneerselvam, OP as he is known in party circles, has since emerged as one of Jayalalithaa’s trusted lieutenants and also the undeclared No. 2 in the party. During his last tenure as proxy, Panneerselvam had effaced himself to such an extent that he didn’t even sit on the chair used by Jayalalithaa in the chief minister’s chamber.
He hardly met visitors or cleared files, which brought the administration to a grinding halt — a distinct possibility this time too, especially after the way the government has functioned in the past three years with the focus on Amma, as Jayalalithaa is referred to by her supporters.
“Although the names of transport minister Sentil Balaji and commercial taxes minister M.C. Sampath, die-hard loyalists who have retained their ministries despite more than a dozen shuffles, are doing the rounds, OP still appears a safer bet as he has been tried out once,” said a top officer.
The Rs 66-crore disproportionate assets case against Jayalalithaa dates back to her first term as chief minister in 1991-96. The case had been booked before a special court in Chennai in 1997 after Jayalalithaa was routed by the DMK in April 1996. The Supreme Court later transferred it to a Karnataka special court in 2003 on a plea by the DMK, which claimed the trial in Chennai would be subverted since the AIADMK had returned to power in May 2001.
If Jayalalithaa is convicted and sentenced to two years in jail or more, she would be disqualified from contesting for six years from the date of her release. A two-year sentence will also mean immediate jail. If the sentence is less, the judge can suspend it till she files an appeal.
But Jayalalithaa’s dominance might lose some of its sheen since her return to power in 2011 and her party’s recent sweep of all but two of the state’s 39 Lok Sabha seats.
Out of power and saddled with the taint of corruption, she would find herself on the back foot while seeking votes in the 2016 elections, which she may not be able to contest if her conviction doesn’t get overturned.
Her supporters, however, pointed out that despite a conviction in the TANSI case, she had still led the AIADMK to a comfortable majority in 2001.
The DMK, stuttering after two defeats and internal squabbles, is also keeping fingers crossed. If Jayalalithaa is convicted, party sources hope, it could help dilute the taint of the spectrum scam.
