Rahul Gandhi had good reason to jump into a muddy pond in Begusarai on Sunday: the fishing-and-boating community of Mallahs he was looking to impress may be crucial to a Mahagathbandhan win this Assembly election.

On the ground, though, this Extremely Backward Class community that has largely stood behind chief minister Nitish Kumar over the last two decades continues to be divided.

It’s anyone’s guess whether the pro-Mahagathbandhan “swing” that can help put Tejashwi Yadav in the chief minister’s chair will be coming on polling day, November 6.

Over 100km from Begusarai, at a ramshackle tea stall in Telia village of Muzaffarpur district, sixty-something Laxman Sahani admits that many from his village plan to vote for the RJD’s lantern symbol. But he denies any “wave” for change.

“Mallah leader Mukesh Sahani has been promised the deputy chief minister’s post (by the Opposition alliance), so, many from here will vote for the lantern. But the current government isn’t bad,” he says, glancing towards Jamunia Devi, who runs the stall.

Mukhesh Sahani

Jamunia nods. She underlines that her daughter-in-law recently received a ₹10,000 cash dole under a new welfare scheme. “Nitish has done a lot for the poor,” she says.

Telia and neighbouring villages are home predominantly to the Mallahs, many of whom look up to Vikassheel Insaan Party founder Mukesh Sahani, who has branded himself the “Son of Mallah”.

To woo the Mallahs, whose votes can be decisive in at least 20 constituencies in and around Muzaffarpur district, the Mahagathbandhan has projected Sahani as prospective deputy to Tejashwi if the RJD leader becomes chief minister.

The move has sparked excitement among segments of the Mallahs who, according to the 2023 caste survey, make up nearly 9.6 per cent of Bihar’s population.

RJD strategists believe that a pro-Mahagathbandhan swing among the Mallahs — made up of sub-castes such as Nishad, Bind, Manjhi, Kewat and Turaha — could give Tejashwi just the fillip he needs in his push for power.

The evidence on the ground suggests that this will be a challenge.

“We don’t trust Mukesh Sahani — he keeps changing sides,” said Bhagat Bind in Turki village, adding that most members of his sub-caste prefer the BJP.

Sahani’s frequent political switches have dented his credibility. After launching his party in 2018, he tied up with the Mahagathbandhan in 2019 before defecting to the NDA in 2020. He eventually returned to the Opposition fold, accusing the BJP of poaching on his party leaders.

Marginalised caste women thrashing harvested paddy in a Muzaffarpur village

Rahul, who has been aggressively pitching himself as a champion of the backward classes, seems to believe that Sahani’s influence can fetch votes for his party candidates, too. The Congress is contesting 61 seats, while Sahani’s party is contesting 15.

On Sunday, after a rally in Begusarai, the Rae Bareli MP joined a group of Mallahs in a pond, along with Sahani and Congress colleague Kanhaiya Kumar, and tried his hand at fishing with nets. He reminded the Mallahs of the various poll promises his alliance had made to the community.

In supporting Nitish since he came to power in 2005, the Mallahs have merely followed their other Extremely Backward Classes brethren, all trying to break free of what they saw as Yadav domination during the Lalu-Rabri era.

Muzaffarpur has long been a key centre of Mallah politics. Late Captain Jai Narayan Nishad, a four-term MP, was once the community’s tallest leader, serving across party lines from the Janata Dal to the BJP. His son Ajay Nishad later represented the seat twice in the Lok Sabha as a BJP member.

To retain the community’s support, the BJP has fielded its Muzaffarpur MP, Raj Bhushan Choudhary, himself a Mallah and now a junior minister in the Narendra Modi government, in the campaign.

Ram Babu Sahani of Telia painted an optimistic picture for the Mahagathbandhan.

“There will be a split. About 70 per cent of Mallahs may vote for the Mahagathbandhan because of Mukesh Sahani, and the rest will back the NDA,” he predicted.

The division owes largely to Mallah women’s reluctance to vote out the Nitish government. Apart from the ₹10,000 cash dole that many of them have received as support for self-employment, they fear that the RJD’s return could encourage hooliganism by segments of the Yadavs.

Telia falls under the Kurhani Assembly constituency, where BJP MLA Kedar Prasad Gupta is seeking re-election. Gupta had won the 2022 by-election even when the JDU was with the Mahagathbandhan.

The RJD has nominated Sunil Kumar Suman, a Kushwaha candidate, aiming to dent a core support base of the NDA that has a sizeable population in the constituency.

The November 6 vote in the Mallah belt of north Bihar will be a test of Tejashwi’s appeal among non-Yadav backward castes, and of Sahani’s ability to rally his community behind the Opposition bloc.