The Reserve Bank of India on Friday revised its growth and inflation forecasts for 2025-26, reflecting confidence in the economy’s resilience despite global uncertainties.

RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra said real GDP growth is now projected at 7.3 per cent for FY26 — a 50-basis-point upgrade from the October estimate of 6.8 per cent — supported by firm domestic demand, rising private investment and easing price pressures.

CPI inflation has been revised down by 60 basis points to 2 per cent, driven by a sharper-than-expected correction in food prices.

Malhotra highlighted that GDP grew 8.2 per cent in Q2 FY26, the strongest in six quarters, aided by buoyant industrial and services activity, tax rationalisation, softer crude oil and front-loaded government capex. While high-frequency indicators show mild softening, he said, overall momentum remains intact.

The governor expects healthy agriculture prospects, benign inflation and strong corporate and financial-sector balance sheets to sustain growth, even as merchandise exports face external headwinds.

On inflation, Malhotra said the CPI inflation at 1.7 per cent in Q2FY26 has breached the lower tolerance threshold (2 per cent) of the inflation target. “Inflation at 2.2 per cent and growth at 8 per cent in H1 mark a rare goldilocks period,” he said.