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regular-article-logo Friday, 25 April 2025

China's March exports jump 12.4% on pre-tariff rush, but trade war dims outlook

Inbound shipments fell 4.3%, compared with a 2.0% decrease forecast in a Reuters poll, and an unexpectedly steep contraction of 8.4% at the start of the year

Reuters Published 14.04.25, 11:21 AM
Representational image.

Representational image. File picture

China's export growth beat expectations in March after factories rushed out shipments before the latest U.S. tariffs took effect, as an escalating Sino-U.S. trade war threatens to sharply restrain growth in the world's second-largest economy.

Exports rose 12.4% year-on-year, handily beating 4.4% growth expected in a Reuters poll of economists. Exports grew 2.3% in January-February.

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Inbound shipments fell 4.3%, compared with a 2.0% decrease forecast in a Reuters poll, and an unexpectedly steep contraction of 8.4% at the start of the year.

Trade uncertainties have rocked financial markets this month after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on many countries on April 2. Trump unexpectedly paused the higher duties on a dozen economies days later, but slapped even higher levies on China that Beijing has dismissed as "a joke".

Washington has jacked up tariffs on China by an eye-watering 145%, prompting Beijing to lift levies on U.S. goods by 125% in an intensifying trade war between the world's two biggest economies.

Exports have been a lone bright spot in China's economy, which has struggled to mount a solid post-COVID recovery as confidence has remained low in the face of a protracted property crisis and deepening deflationary pressures.

Beijing has vowed to fight to the end against U.S. tariffs and protect the economy from "external shocks", with markets widely expecting authorities to roll out further fiscal and monetary stimulus measures in coming months to underpin growth.

The World Trade Organization has warned the high-stakes Sino-U.S. trade row could cut the shipment of goods between two economies by as much as 80% and severely hurt global growth.

Goldman Sachs last week lowered its forecasts for China's 2025 GDP growth to 4% from 4.5%, citing the effects of tariffs. Citi cut its forecast to 4.2% from 4.7% two days earlier. Their revised forecasts are well below the government's growth target of "around 5%"

China was not alone in stepping up efforts to out-run Trump's tariffs ahead of April.

German exports also rose more than expected in February, signalling world-wide fontloading, with shipments to the U.S. up 8.5% on the month, as did South Korean shipments.

South Korea's exports to China, a leading indicator of the latter's imports, fell 4.1% in March, Korean data showed this month.

China's March trade surplus was $102.64 billion, down slightly from $104.8 billion in December, the most recent comparable reading, but roughly in line with the level recorded a year earlier. This will likely keep the production powerhouse in Trump's sights given that bringing the trade gap down is at the top of his agenda.

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