July 31: A little more than a year after the Russian effort to interfere in the American presidential election came to light, the diplomatic fallout - an unraveling of the relationship between Moscow and Washington on a scale not seen in decades - is taking its toll.
President Vladimir V. Putin bet that Donald J. Trump, who had spoken fondly of Russia and its authoritarian leader for years, would treat his nation as Putin has longed to have it treated by the West. That is, as the superpower it once was, or at least a major force to be reckoned with, from Syria to Europe, and boasting a military revived after two decades of neglect.
That bet has now backfired, spectacularly. If the sanctions overwhelmingly passed by Congress last week sent any message to Moscow, it was that Trump's hands are now tied in dealing with Moscow, probably for years to come.
Just weeks after the two leaders spent hours in seemingly friendly conversation in Hamburg, Germany, the prospect of the kinds of deals Trump once mused about in interviews seems more distant than ever. Congress is not ready to forgive the annexation of Crimea, nor allow extensive reinvestment in Russian energy.
The new sanctions were passed by a coalition of Democrats who blame Putin for contributing to Hillary Clinton's defeat and Republicans fearful that their President misunderstands who he is dealing with in Moscow.
So with his decision to order that hundreds of American diplomats and Russians working for the American embassy leave their posts, Putin, known as a great tactician but not a great strategist, has changed course again.
For now, American officials and outside experts said yesterday, he seems to believe his greater leverage lies in escalating the dispute, Cold War-style, rather than subtly trying to manipulate events with a mix of subterfuge, cyberattacks and information warfare.
But it is unclear how much the announcement will affect day-to-day relations. While the Russian news media said 755 diplomats would be barred from working, and presumably expelled, there do not appear to be anything close to 755 American diplomats working in Russia.
That figure almost certainly includes Russian nationals working at the embassy, usually in non-sensitive jobs. (A 2013 state department inspector general's report, the last concrete numbers publicly available, said there were 934 "locally employed" staff members at the Moscow embassy and three consulates, out of 1,279 total staff members. That would leave roughly 345 Americans, many of whom report regular harassment by Russian officials.)
And of course there are many non-diplomats working for the US government in Russia at any given time - experts from departments across the government, from energy to agriculture, and a large station of spies, some working under diplomatic cover.
"One of Putin's greatest goals is to assure Russia is treated as if it was still the Soviet Union, a nuclear power that has to be respected and feared," said Angela Stent, the director of Eurasian, Russian and East European studies at Georgetown University. "And he thought he might get that from Trump," said Stent, who was the national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia during the administration of George W. Bush.
But now, she added, the Russians look at the chaos in the White House "and see a level of unpredictability there, which makes them nervous". The reaction, she said, was to retreat to old habits - and the expulsion of diplomats is, of course, one of the oldest.
Those in the administration who served during the Cold War are also returning to that terminology. Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence, told a security conference in Aspen, Colorado, this month that he had no doubt that the Russians "are trying to undermine Western democracy".
His boss has never uttered a similar phrase.
NEW YORK TIMES NEWS SERVICE
