The June 19 by-election to the Kaliganj Assembly segment in Nadia district has emerged as a litmus test for the BJP and its polarisation strategy, which is championed by the leader of the Opposition, Suvendu Adhikari, who has made dislodging the Trinamul Congress from power his singular mission.

Adhikari has been trying to consolidate Hindu votes in the Muslim-majority constituency, but the ground reality doesn't hold much hope for the BJP.

The bypoll was necessitated by the sudden demise of TMC MLA Nasiruddin Ahmed in February. A triangular contest is now unfolding among the TMC, BJP and the Congress-Left combine.

While the TMC appears far ahead in terms of manpower and campaigning, the bypoll gained early attention for a record number of deletions of the names of “ghost voters”. The Election Commission purged over 5,500 deceased voters and added nearly 3,600 new names after a special revision — an exercise prompted after deletions crossed the two per cent mark in a 2.5 lakh-strong electorate.

Although by-elections rarely alter the legislative balance, Kaliganj has taken on the shape of a political barometer. The outcome will likely reflect the momentum of the TMC, BJP’s consolidation push and the effectiveness of the Congress-Left alliance — all of which could shape broader narratives ahead of the 2026 Assembly polls.

The TMC has nominated Alifa Ahmed, the daughter of the late MLA. The 38-year-old BTech graduate, who is a former IT project manager and ex-zilla parishad member, enjoys a clear advantage in a constituency where Muslims comprise over 40 per cent of voters.

BJP has fielded Ashish Ghosh, a seasoned gram panchayat member and district party office-bearer, hoping to rally the Hindu electorate.

After initial discord, the Congress-Left combine fielded Kabil Uddin Shaikh and paved the way for a three-way contest.

However, the race is less triangular than it appears. With a strong Muslim voter base behind her, Alifa appears to be ahead despite sensitive issues like the teacher recruitment scam troubling the Mamata Banerjee government.

“In Bengal, elections are fought on the plank of development. On that front, no one stands a chance against Trinamool — or rather, Mamata Banerjee, who has become an institution in herself. Those trying to win votes using religion or corruption will become irrelevant. Yes, corruption is unfortunate, but it cannot define the entire picture of Bengal,” Alifa said, asserting she would surpass her father’s 2021 winning margin of 47,000 votes.

Kamaluddin Sheikh, a local SUCI leader, said: “People in Bengal now vote for doles. The lure of government benefits has silenced protests against corruption. So yes, crossing her father’s victory margin is very likely.”

However, Trinamool's campaign has not been trouble-free. Despite TMC's claims of development, public discontent surfaced on June 16 when residents of Hatgachi-Ashachia blocked urban development minister Firhad Hakim’s convoy as he campaigned for Alifa. The angry residents demanded immediate repair of a vital road they claimed had been neglected for nearly 15 years.

Hakim faced similar embarrassment again on Tuesday when villagers blocked his way over the road issue.

The TMC candidate had to assure the villagers that the roads would be repaired before the 2026 polls so that she could move ahead with the campaign.

BJP candidate Ashish Ghosh seized the moment: “The incidents of eruption of public anger in Ashachia and other places are not isolated ones. This frustration simmers across Kaliganj. The only difference is that here people dared to express it in front of a minister.”

For the BJP, the road to electoral relevance in Kaliganj remains steep. The party has failed to significantly grow its vote share in recent years and is reportedly struggling to deploy polling agents at all 309 booths. In a constituency dominated by Muslim voters, the BJP’s support has plateaued at around 32 per cent.

Although the TMC had lost Kaliganj to the Congress in 2016, the ruling party's vote share was 45 per cent. Trinamool's vote share rose to 53 per cent in 2021, before slipping to 51 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The dip in the TMC’s vote share has benefited the Congress-Left alliance, not the BJP. In the 2024 general election, the alliance improved its vote share from 12 per cent in 2021 to 18 per cent.

Recognising this trend, BJP leaders admit that any decline in the TMC’s votes is unlikely to accrue to them. Their immediate priority is to retain their existing vote base and split the support of both the TMC and the Congress-Left alliance — a near-impossible task in a constituency where Muslim voters are unlikely to back the saffron party.

Arjun Biswas, president of BJP’s Nadia North organisational district, acknowledged the challenge: “Yes, getting Muslim votes is difficult. But in politics, nothing is impossible. People understand now who ensures safety and livelihood. The rest depends on our organisation.”

The weak organisational structure remains the BJP's biggest drawback in Kaliganj, where it lacks polling agents at many booths.

To counter this, Suvendu Adhikari has advised the party to focus on polarisation. BJP leaders have been highlighting alleged attacks on Hindus in areas like Samserganj, Mothabari, and Maheshtala recently as part of this strategy.

Asked during a recent campaign programme whether the BJP had a roadmap to victory in a Muslim-dominated seat like Kaliganj, Adhikari said: “The party is mainly focused on preventing a split in Hindu votes and will continue to highlight recent attacks on the community as a key issue.”

He added that the BJP hoped to achieve at least 40 per cent vote share through this approach.

The Congress is banking on a repeat of its surprise victory in the 2023 Sagardighi bypoll, when its candidate Bayron Biswas defeated the TMC’s Debasish Banerjee by nearly 23,000 votes with Left support.

State Congress president Subhankar Sarkar remains hopeful. “We urge the conscious voters of Kaliganj to see through the pseudo fight between the TMC and the BJP and support the secular, progressive forces backed by the Left,” he said.

The Congress campaign is also highlighting what it calls a “TMC-BJP nexus” at the grassroots level, pointing to the formation of the panchayat board at Debagram. Despite winning 16 out of 30 seats in the 2023 rural polls, internal rifts prevented the TMC from forming the board alone.

A faction of the TMC joined hands with the BJP and others, enabling the TMC’s Arpita Roychowdhury Dey to become panchayat chief and the BJP’s Ashish Ghosh — now their bypoll candidate — to take charge of the agriculture and livestock department.

This unusual alliance has become a talking point for the Congress-Left campaign, which questions how a BJP candidate can be an administrator in a TMC-run panchayat.

Both the TMC and the BJP have denied any such understanding. BJP’s Nadia North media convener Sandip Majumdar dismissed the allegation: “They’re mixing politics with administrative responsibilities. People know BJP is the only alternative to the TMC.”

As the campaign winds down, Kaliganj remains a constituency to watch because it might offer a preview of Bengal's political future in 2026.