In 2007, at the time when the third ASER survey was conducted, Assam's learning levels were either close to or on a par with national levels. Further, they were typically better than other northeastern states. Since then (2007-2016), India has experienced a gradual decline in its learning levels as has Assam. What is worrying for the state is that its learning levels have fallen steadily behind All- India levels and those of neighbouring states. The decline has happened even though schools in Assam now have better physical infrastructure than that in 2007. Only 19 per cent of surveyed schools in Assam had a boundary wall in 2010: this increased to 33 per cent in 2016. Likewise, between the same period, schools with useable girls' toilets increased from a mere 14 per cent to 54 per cent.

Increased provision of physical infrastructure has, however, not improved learning levels. The percentage of grade III children who can read standard II level texts in 2007 was 23 per cent. It declined to 17 per cent in 2016. The corresponding percentages at All India levels were 22 and 25 respectively. Likewise, the percentage of grade III children who could solve at least a subtraction problem was 42 in 2007 and it declined to 27 in 2016. The All India percentages were 42 (2007) and 28 (2016).

Cohort analysis, wherein we follow grade I children across ASER surveys, confirms that children in Assam have steadily fallen behind national trends. For example, in 2008, nationally 2.7 per cent of children in grade I could read standard II texts. The corresponding figure for Assam was 1.8 per cent. In 2010, when this cohort graduated to grade III, the percentages were 19.5 and 16.6 respectively. Since then, the gap between the two cohorts has steadily widened. In 2016, when the cohort transitioned to grade VIII, nationally 73 per cent of them could read standard II texts: in Assam the corresponding percentage was 63.6.

The widening of learning gaps holds true when Assam is compared with Bihar, Odisha, West Bengal and northeastern states. For instance, in 2008, the percentage of standard I children who could read standard II texts in Assam (1.8 per cent) was on a par with most other northeastern states. In 2009, when this cohort transitioned to grade II, the percentage was 8 for Assam. The corresponding percentages were 5.9 for Arunachal Pradesh and 4 .5 for Nagaland. When the cohort graduated to grade VIII in 2016, learning levels were the lowest in Assam (63.6 per cent) among Bihar, Odisha, West Bengal and all northeastern states.

The Indian Early Childhood Education Impact study too finds that Assam is not being able to retain its early head start. The IECEI study followed over time a sample of 12,000 children from when they were four till they are eight in two districts each of three states (Assam, Telangana and Rajasthan). The study found that initially children's school readiness in Assam was the highest. At the end of first year, while the average percentage school readiness score in Assam was still the highest, Telangana had almost 'caught up' with Assam. In subsequent early grade assessments at the ages six, seven and eight, Assam falls steadily behind the other two states.

Thus, two different sources of data- one a thinner data but spread across a 10-year period (the ASER surveys) and another a richer data (IECEI) but spread over a shorter period of time - are consistent in suggesting that Assam is not being able to build on its early advantage. The result of which is that children in Assam are not receiving the 'quality' education that they richly deserve. The urgency for government interventions is clear. The 'Gunotsav 2017', which aimed at identifying quality gaps in government schools, is a welcome step. As compared to physical infrastructure, there has been less improvement in teaching infrastructure and teaching learning process. For example, the percentage of schools meeting pupil-teacher ratio norms as per the Right to Education Act increased from 33.6 in 2010 to 35.2 in 2016. There was also an increase in the incidence of multi-grade teaching - the percentage of schools where standard II children were observed sitting with one or more grades increased from 43.8 in 2010 to 58.6 in 2016. Thus, it seems that Assam would be better off focussing on improving the student-teacher ratio and the teaching-learning processes as opposed to investment in physical infrastructure alone to enhance quality learning in the primary education sector.