Everybody likes catching so-called opinion leaders with their pants down. During elections, the talking heads on TV drone on for hours. They think people watch the channel to listen to them. They are right in a way. People do listen to them to laugh gleefully later when they are proved wildly wrong. The wisest analysts are those who display their erudition after the event.

This crystal-ball gazing happens in other arenas also. Economists regularly predict the GDP growth rate. The government talks of deficits and inflation. The chambers of commerce wax eloquent on industrial production and productivity. Almost all projections go awry. Some are, of course, made just to boost confidence levels. The Reserve Bank, for instance, regularly talks up the rupee. There is even an expression for it — OMO or open mouth operations. “The main difference between open mouth operations and open market operations is that the former deals with the intent while the latter refers to the action,” says Investopedia.

Does the same thing happen with jobs? Well, the government needs to paint a positive picture. So you will have a finance minister talking about millions of jobs that are being created. The chambers of commerce are often handmaidens of the government. So they toe the same line. The corporate world would like people to believe that jobs are scarce. That covers a lot of sins. Increments can be low. Employees can be expected to shoulder bigger workloads. And there is an excuse for favouritism; “star performers” get bigger bonuses because they bring in the money.

So what are the projections for India Inc like this year? MyHiringClub, a recruitment tendering platform with operations across Asia, says that hiring activity will improve in the January-March 2013 quarter. The country’s net employment outlook, a measure of recruitment intentions, is up two per cent to touch 40 per cent. The most active sectors will be information technology (IT) and information technology enabled services (ITeS), with fast moving consumer goods also picking up. In calendar 2013, India is expected to add 1.1 million jobs, says the survey.

Hiring in India is likely to be stagnant in the first quarter, says a survey by staffing solutions firm TeamLease and its affiliate the Indian Institute of Job Training. Its Employment Outlook Report for the January-March 2013 quarter says both net employment and business outlook have declined. According to a TeamLease release: “The slow GDP growth rate coupled with the recession in the international market seems to be taking a toll on the employment scenario.” The only bright spots are infrastructure, and IT & ITeS.

The saving grace, says TeamLease, is that things will improve after the first quarter when the “recent reforms announced in various sectors are expected to lift the market and result in more employment”.

Meanwhile, the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey says that Q1 2013 will be better than the last quarter of 2012. Services will lead the show with wholesale and retail trade coming in close behind.

Apex chamber Assocham has also done some number-crunching and come up with a report that says that “job generation plummeted by over 21 per cent between January 1 and December 15, 2012”. The survey has used the rather quaint methodology of counting appointment advertisements; one expects a chamber to rely more on feedback from its members. But that is a process that takes time.

Assocham evidently wanted to come out with its analysis as quickly as possible; the early bird catches the media headlines. (This is also the reason it did not wait till December 31.) According to Assocham, the IT sector was tops, followed by education. The chamber has not made any projections.

What does all this till us about the job scene? Very little. You can take your pick. The Manpower survey concludes that one among every four Indian employers is uncertain about hiring plans for the next three months. Job prospects are uncertain. Job-market researchers are even more so. You can’t go wrong if you hedge your bets so comprehensively.