American companies say they plan to hire. If they do as they say, the unemployment picture will brighten considerably. In the Business Roundtable survey 52 per cent of companies planned to hire workers in the US over the next six months, while just 11 per cent said they expected to reduce employment.

Many CEOs said they planned to hire. The survey has been taken every three months since late 2002. The Business Roundtable includes chief executives of 200 major American companies. If most of them do add workers, this would almost certainly have a substantial effect on employment in the country. Two other broader surveys of companies are taken each month by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Its survey of manufacturers has been showing more companies planning to increase employment than reduce it since fall 2009, and indeed manufacturing employment rose in 2010 for the first full year since 1997, according to the Labor Department. The latest government report indicates that employment in that sector has risen to the highest level in two years.

The ISM numbers are normally presented on a scale of zero to 100, with 50 indicating that as many companies are hiring as are firing; numbers above that level indicating more hiring. Both the service and manufacturing figures slipped a little in March, which could indicate that growth is slowing. But the manufacturing figures for each of the first three months of 2011 were higher than in any previous month since 1973. The Business Roundtable survey received responses from 142 of the 200 chief executives, which the organisation said was the largest response rate ever. The survey includes three questions, each of which produced unusually optimistic responses. Asked about their own companies’ plans for capital spending in the US, 62 per cent said they planned increases. That was the best response since the first quarter of 2005, when only 60 per cent planned increases.