 |
Is India really becoming a grim market for job seekers? According to the latest Manpower survey, employers’ hiring intentions in the country have fallen massively. Some other studies also point to a slowdown. On the other hand, the climate is improving in the West.
These columns have spoken earlier about it being almost entirely an issue of confidence. Numbers don’t change overnight, but confidence can. “If you were to do the same study today, when a whole lot of growth-oriented reforms have been announced, it would be a very different picture,” says Mumbai-based HR consultant D. Singh. “The aviation sector was sacking people. Retail was a holding operation for many. Now, with the relaxation of foreign direct investment norms in these areas, they will be hiring in a big way.”
The other big thing going for growth in jobs is that the confidence-destroyer-in-chief — Anna Hazare — has been defanged. It is well known that a small, vocal group — which makes its own laws — can hold a nation to ransom. Organised labour has demonstrated that as have political parties of various hues. Hazare plus mob executed their blackmail strategy quite effectively in the beginning.
The paralysis in government decision-making which resulted in a slowdown in growth and, more importantly, confidence was caused almost entirely by the machinations of the man who would be Gandhi. It is nobody’s case that corruption should be accepted. But there is a way to handle it; you have to work within the system. Hazare tried that later by taking to politics. But after he was informed that most of the candidates of his party would lose their deposits, he backtracked. Amid these flip-flops, he lost his base of young supporters. In the current industrial climate, they can’t find jobs and they have only themselves to blame.
Many of our political parties would prefer that migrant labour in the cities go back to the villages to farm. They fail to understand that agriculture has necessarily to be corporatised or cooperativised. At the individual level, farming is too risky. One bad crop can send the farmer into the moneylender’s clutches. Farming the world over is the profession most prone to suicides. The future of agriculture belongs to large collectives and corporates are best suited for this. Sure, there will be a decline in employment. (At one time in the UK, household service — butlers, maids, grooms — used to be the second-largest occupation after agriculture. Now it barely exists.) But areas like retail will open up. The same groups that are opposing corporate entry into agriculture are dead against the opening up of retail. It has nothing to do with mom-and-pop shops. If people move from agriculture to retail, they need to be more educated. Will they then vote for the current political panjandrums?
To get back to the Manpower survey, is the situation really so grim? It’s not India alone — South Africa and Brazil are -7 each and China is -5. In the year-on-year numbers, India is -13 and China -7. It should be noted that these countries have been the growth engines in recent years and the drop in outlook is from a high base. India will continue to find jobs for a large number of people. The problem again is one of expectation; people don’t want to take up the jobs available. They would rather try and end up in Parliament one day where they don’t have to work.
But, overall, there is hope. “If the current set of reforms doesn’t get derailed, confidence will return,” says Singh.
“It’s not just confidence in the employer community. It is also confidence in the reform-minded that the anti-reform brigade has no backbone. Both confidence and growth in jobs available will be back.”
FALLING ANGELS
Manpower Employment Outlook for Q4 2012 compared to Q3 2012 (% points change in hiring intentions)
Switzerland +5
Panama +4
Romania +3
Costa Rica +2
Guatemala +2
Israel -7
Slovakia -7
South Africa -7
Bulgaria -8
India -18
Note: These are employer expectation. Q3 and Q4 refer to quarters of the calendar year
Source: Manpower Global Employment Outlook survey 2012
