Vadodara: The climate may be hostile in many parts of Gujarat, but the BJP can relax in the salubrious political weather of Vadodara.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains immensely popular among all sections of society in Vadodara, which has been untouched by the disturbances caused by the Patidar agitation, agrarian distress and a resurgent Congress.
One can easily see why this is the place that elected Modi by over five lakh votes in the parliamentary elections three years ago.
The BJP had won all the 10 Assembly seats here in the 2012 elections and the margin of victory ranged between 20,000 and 50,000. Although the Congress claims it is locked in a serious fight in at least six, public reaction isn't very encouraging except in Sayaligunj, where echoes of "change" can be heard.
Voters admit in rural areas that the Congress is fighting seriously this time and its support base would expand but doubt if the BJP's overwhelming might could be challenged.
Even farmers blame their distress on the circumstances rather than the government. They instead hail Modi for "excellent" roads, toilets, electricity and easy loans.
One farmer, Mohanbhai Chawra, even ran to his house to fetch a certificate of aid he had received from the government and a photograph with Modi.
"There is no doubt that the GST (goods and services tax) and note- bandi (demonetisation) created problems but the BJP's governance is unquestionably better than the Congress's," said Haroon Pathan, a Muslim. "You can't compare any other state with Gujarat in terms of development."
Asked if Muslims faced any discrimination, Pathan said: "None at all. After 2002, there is total peace. We never saw such a long stretch of riot-free environment. There is no communal tension. We are allowed to live as we want and to carry out our businesses."
But his prediction that Patidar leader Hardik Patel would be crushed after the election by the Modi-Amit Shah duo indicated how a particular kind of politics had gained legitimacy in the state.
Businessman Harikesh Patel had made the same prediction. "Hardik is a seasonal bird and nobody will hear of him after the election," he had said.
Asked about the difference in attitude between the Patidars of Saurashtra, north Gujarat and Vadodara, he said: "Patels are all BJP supporters. Some of them are going to Hardik's rallies as part of future investment but they will vote for the BJP. If Hardik floats a Patel-centric outfit, then there will be a difference."
Congress leader Anuj Patel dismissed any calculations based on the 2012 or 2014 results. "The situation has changed dramatically," he said.
"Now there is no passion to make Modi the PM. People are feeling betrayed as Modi failed to fulfil promises. They are troubled by rising costs of LPG cylinders, education, health care and other essential commodities. Even drinking water is not available in Vadodara. They are mesmerised by Modi's speeches but issues cannot be ignored."
What is assuring for the BJP is that the owner of a big clothes showroom in Vadodara's posh Alkapuri and agriculture labourers in villages are speaking the same language in favour of Modi.
Add to that the religious factor: Mahant Ram Sharan of Kanjri village speaks about nationalism every day and explains how agrarian issues cannot be solved by any government.
"We are sants, we have no interest in politics, no inclination towards any political party. We bless all," he told The Telegraph.
He then gives a glimpse of his mind after a meandering lecture on the greatness of Hinduism. "Farmers are destined to live in misery. But they cannot ignore the larger cause of nation-building. Without patriotism, man becomes animal..." he said.
You know what it means.