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Regular-article-logo Monday, 01 September 2025

SHELL FOR SHELL, EAR TO THE GROUND 

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FROM BHARAT BHUSHAN Published 28.05.02, 12:00 AM
New Delhi, May 28 :    New Delhi, May 28:  In not reacting belligerently to President Pervez Musharraf's televised address yesterday reiterating old positions, India seems to be following a two-pronged strategy. It is keeping up the exchange of fire on the Line of Control (LoC) as a part of its 'proportionate response' to Pak firing. However, firing has come down 'drastically' since Tuesday forenoon and New Delhi has taken note of this fact. At the same time, there is awareness that Musharraf has sent instructions to his corps commanders that infiltration needs to be stopped. The government has also learnt that various militant groups operating from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir are being told by the Pakistan establishment that infiltration must be stopped for the time being. The emphasis apparently is on stopping infiltration temporarily, government sources said. There are also reports in Pakistan's Urdu media that the militants are complaining of their wireless communication being disrupted and jammed. This can only be done by Pakistani security agencies and is a good sign. Taking cognisance of these developments, India, it would seem, has decided to wait and watch to see how the ground situation develops while keeping up the military pressure. However, it has refused to set a deadline for Pakistan to stop infiltration. Judging infiltration takes time. These factors perhaps have prompted external affairs minister Jaswant Singh to not say anything in his news conference to escalate tensions. How much of this wait-and-watch policy is the result of US and other western initiatives is difficult to say. But it would be safe to assume that the western refereeing has something to do with the Indian posture. As of now, it would seem that the war clouds are showing signs of receding. But their presence is still palpable. The imponderables in the present situation are: India's reaction if another major terrorist incident were to take place; what New Delhi would like to tell the troops on the border about its wait-and-watch policy; and the amount of consolidation India wants to allow to the Pakistan army. The longer India waits to take military action, the more the advantage for the adversary. Most important, experts believe, is that the initiative is moving into US hands and towards third party arbitration. The key message in Musharraf's speech, many in the Indian government feel, was that he was willing to do whatever the US asked of him. but nothing on what India tells him. India, too, has been appealing to the US to persuade Pakistan to mend its ways in Kashmir. Now, there is an attempt to get Russia to pressure India. Willy-nilly, the situation is moving towards international arbitration on its own momentum. The question then: Is India going to play the US game by default or play it well and to its own advantage? Experts say there are no clear answers at this juncture.    
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