New Delhi: Analysts are divided over the impact of reciprocal tariffs on India.

Goldman Sachs sees higher US tariffs as a threat to India’s economic growth.

S&P Global Ratings suggests the overall impact on the economy may be limited, compared with other Asian economies.

With India imposing higher tariffs than the US on most products — by an average of 6.5 percentage points — Washington could respond with similar levies.

Goldman Sachs economists highlight three possible scenarios under Trump’s proposed “reciprocal tariff” policy: broad tariff hikes on all Indian imports, raising duties by 6.5 percentage points; product-specific tariffs, matching Indian rates, which could push the US tariff burden on Indian goods up by 11.5 percentage points and non-tariff barriers, including administrative restrictions and licensing hurdles.

Goldman Sachs estimates that depending on how demand responds, higher tariffs could shave 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points off India’s GDP growth.

S&P Global Ratings offers a more optimistic outlook, suggesting that India’s economy is well-positioned to absorb potential tariff shocks.

“India’s dependence on exports for growth is not that great. So, therefore, I think the impact of US tariffs will be more or less limited,” said YeeFarn Phua, director at S&P Global Ratings.