India’s budget offer to cut duties on a wide range of US imports may not be enough to mollify a bellicose Donald Trump, who is still poised to impose fresh tariffs that could hit key Indian exports.

In a move aimed at easing tensions, India lowered tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, Tesla cars and several other US exports in the budget.

While these tariff cuts may improve access for American exporters, analysts say they may not be sufficient to deter Trump from imposing fresh levies as part of his broader protectionist push.

The analysts said Washington may still impose levies on steel, aluminum and pharmaceuticals from India, which holds a trade surplus of $35-36 billion with the US.

Modi is likely to go on a two-day visit to the US from February 12 to hold talks with US President Trump on a range of issues including trade and defence even as prospects of fresh US trade actions loom.

While it remains unclear whether new tariffs will precede his trip, officials expect their discussions will center on resolving trade frictions and expanding bilateral commerce.

“Trump will likely impose tariffs on sectors that inflict more pain on India, such as jewellery, electrical appliances, machinery, textiles, apparel, and labour-intensive goods such as handicrafts, leather, and carpets,” said Ram Singh of the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT). “He will likely avoid targeting pharmaceuticals, mineral fuels and marine products to minimise the impact on US consumers.”

Instead of reacting to what he called Trump’s “disruptive and impromptu trade overtures”, Singh suggested India could counterbalance potential tariffs by increasing energy and defence purchases from the US, which could yield strategic trade gains.

Biswajit Dhar, a trade policy expert, said Trump has yet to specify which Indian sectors he will target, but past actions indicate a broad-brush approach. In reality, the weighted average tariff on US exports to India is below 5 per cent, far lower than India’s overall tariff average, according to think tank GTRI.

Despite India’s pre-emptive moves, Trump has continued to champion his “America First” policy, recently announcing plans for tariffs on foreign-produced semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and computer chips.

“China is a tremendous tariff maker, and India and Brazil and so many other countries. So we’re not going to let that happen any longer because we’re going to put America first,” he said recently.

Analysts said “the upcoming visit will test India’s ability to navigate Trump’s protectionist policies while maintaining strong trade ties. Modi’s challenge will be to ensure that India is not caught in the crossfire of US election-driven trade measures.”

In a move directly targeting US trade concerns, India cut tariffs on large-engine motorcycles, an issue Trump repeatedly raised regarding Harley-Davidson exports.Duties on motorcycles below 1,600cc were reduced to 40 per cent from 50 per cent, while those above 1,600cc saw rates slashed to 30 per cent from 50 per cent. The US exported $3 million worth of motorcycles to India in 2023-24.

Additional tariff reductions include duties on US waste and scrap materials worth $2.5 billion, which were cut to zero from 5 per; duties on carrier-grade Ethernet switches were halved to 10 per cent from 20 per cent.