THE BIG FIGHT: Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif have both been warned by the Election Commission to mind their conduct; (below) President Asif Ali Zardari

This is the season of surprise and hope in Pakistan. Since electioneering began, surprises have sprung up every now and then. But many believe that the biggest surprise of all is that the elections are actually being held in the country, given the violence and uncertainty being witnessed in the run-up to the polls.

Even the indefatigable chief election commissioner, Justice Fakhruddin Ebrahim, has admitted that the situation is grim. In the coming days, he warns, it may get worse.

But if all goes according to plan, on May 11, an electorate of 86 million Pakistanis will be expected to elect around 1,000 representatives, a quarter of whom will go to Parliament in Islamabad. The MPs, in turn, will elect a new Prime Minister. Many place their bets on Nawaz Sharif; others believe the time for Imran Khan has come. Pervez Musharraf is no longer in the race, of course. One of the surprises in this election was in store for the former dictator, who returned to Pakistan in March after a self-imposed exile with the hope that he’d lead the people — only to find himself being disqualified to contest in the polls.

But the question on the minds of most Pakistanis is not just who will come to power. What’s equally — or more — important is if the new PM will be able to turn around the country’s fortunes. Expectations are high, but many ignore the fact that the major players in the game — the President, the chief justice and the army chief — will continue holding these positions till later this year.

Any elected PM is likely to face resistance from the troika, and may have to form strategic alliances to carry on. The terms of all three come to an end this year — but some believe President Asif Ali Zardari may stand for re-election.

Pakistan’s biggest challenge is the state of its economy and its war on terrorism. Both are linked. The economy reels when there is a rise in terrorist incidents. Businessman Akeel Dhedi, who heads a group of companies stretching from Karachi to Islamabad, feels that the country’s private sector suffers the most because of terror attacks and is in need of a shot in the arm through much needed foreign investments. But foreign investment comes with law and order. This is what many hope for in post-election Pakistan. Imran Khan calls it the “Naya Pakistan” — or the new Pakistan. Others are not so sure.

As far as the elections are concerned, despite the voices of doom, there is a sense of change in the air. Perhaps it is because the composition of the vote base has changed in many constituencies. After the disqualification of over 36 million fake voters by the Election Commission, there is hope that the nearly 40 million first time voters — most of them between 18 and 25 years of age — may help vote out the old guard and usher in a new set of representatives.

Not surprisingly, the youth has been targeted by most parties — through catchy songs at rallies, the use of social media and smart slogans and advertising on television. But hope comes hand-in-hand with dark reality. Terrorism has already cast a cloud over the polls. Rallies by some parties have been bombed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or the TTP (an umbrella organisation of militant groups) while other parties have been allowed a free hand. There have been 42 attacks since electioneering started on April 11 — killing 74 people and injuring 350, mostly workers and supporters of the Peshawar-based Awami National Party, the Karachi-based Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the outgoing ruling party, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

The three parties have now come together to demand protection for their candidates. The caretaker government has been unable to do so, leading to fears in some quarters that if the bombings continue, the elections may be postponed.

So far, though, almost all parties have rejected the idea of a postponement. But some are wavering. “This is a challenge to democracy and we will fight it,” asserts MQM leader Farooq Sattar. But he adds: “If the government remains a silent spectator, then we may decide to boycott these one-sided polls.” The chief election commissioner has also admitted that if violence continues, the polls may be affected.

Two parties, however, are actively campaigning. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) and Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N) party seem to have been given the green light by the TTP. The TTP states that parties that follow a secular agenda will be targeted and those with an Islamic agenda will be allowed to contest. And the two parties have taken advantage of this diktat. Of course, they are also at loggerheads with each other.

Indeed, the battle between Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif is heating up in Punjab, politically the most important and populous province in Pakistan. “Whoever wins Punjab,” says political commentator Javed Chaudhry, “wins Pakistan.” There has been a lot of name calling between Sharif and Khan, both of whom have been warned by the Election Commission to behave. Imran Khan promises to make tikkas out of the Nawaz Sharif’s lion (the party’s electoral symbol), while Sharif describes Khan as a “child who needs to be taught a lesson in politics.”

And as the two fight each other, what worries sections of Pakistan is the fact that some parties can hold campaigns and rallies, while other cannot. The Pakistani army is not happy with this either. Army chief Ashfaq Pervez Kayani reiterated earlier this week that the army was “cent per cent behind democracy and the holding of elections.”

At the same time, he warned off parties that advocated adopting a softer line with the TTP. “The menace of terrorism and extremism has claimed thousands of lives, including those of the army, and innocent people of Pakistan,” said Kayani. Despite the bloodshed, some still wanted to “remain embroiled” in the debate concerning the causes of the “war” and who imposed it on Pakistan, he said, referring to the army’s battle with militants in tribal areas.

“I would like to ask all those who raise such questions that if a small faction wants to enforce its distorted ideology over the entire nation by taking up arms and for this purpose defies the constitution of Pakistan and the democratic process and considers all forms of bloodshed justified, then does the fight against this enemy of the state constitute someone else’s war,” he argued.

The army chief insisted that elections should not be postponed and, if needed, the army could be sent to cities to maintain law and order. An estimated 70,000 army men are expected to be deployed all over the country. This may help tide over the state of insecurity the country is in at the moment.

The question now is who will take charge in May. Observers point out that the one party that does not seem to be interested in power is the incumbent PPP. Citing security reasons, it has held no rallies. But more significant is that no one leader is heading the party’s campaign. President Zardari has distanced himself from the elections because of the office he holds, but his son, Bilawal Bhutto, the co-chairperson of the party, and his sisters have also kept away.

While the PPP has taken a back seat — the buzz is that the party has decided to wait out this term — pundits predict that the next Prime Minister may well be Mian Nawaz Sharif heading a coalition government, with the PPP as one of its junior partners. “Both parties are countering Imran Khan’s PTI,” says analyst Sikandar Mehdi, who says that the PTI is going to be the surprise of this election. No one, he adds, is willing to bet on how many seats the party will win.

At the same time, the PPP has also hinted that it is equally comfortable in entering an alliance with the PTI after the election. The politics of shifting loyalties is something that President Zardari excels in, political pundits stress. Many feel the “horse-trading” — persuading politicians to switch sides or loyalties — will begin in earnest immediately after the final results come in.

A clean sweep by any party, political analyst Asad Saeed holds, is unlikely, although at this stage in Pakistan’s history, it could be the most needed thing. But even more needed is the fair conduct of election. So far, all fingers are crossed.

Election pie

The National Assembly, the lower house of the Pakistani Parliament, has 342 seats. These include 60 proportional seats reserved for women and 10 for non-Muslims.

Direct elections on May 11

Province: Seats

Punjab: 148

Sindh: 61

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: 35

Balochistan: 14

Federally Administered

Tribal Areas (FATA): 12

Federal Capital of Islamabad: 2

Total: 272

Parties in the fray

Pakistan Peoples Party

Pakistan Muslim League (N)

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

Awami National Party

Muttahida Qaumi Movement

Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F)

Electorate in numbers

Men: 48,592,387

Women: 37,597,415

Punjab has 49,259,334 voters, the highest in the country.

Capital Islamabad has 625,964 voters.

(Source: Election Commission of Pakistan)

Who’s fighting from where

Nawaz Sharif of PML (N) from NA-120 in the heart of Lahore

Imran Khan of PTI, from NA-1 (Peshawar), NA-56 (Rawalpindi), NA-71 (Mianwali), and NA-122 (Lahore)

Former PM Raja Pervez Ashraf of PPP from NA-51 (Gujjar Khan, Punjab)

Maulana Fazlur Rehman of JUI (F) from NA-27, NA-25 and NA-24, all in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

The author is a Pakistan-based journalist