One aspect that has surprised — puzzled? — the pundit and the politician alike in the days leading up to the assembly elections in Bihar — the polls begin today — is Nitish Kumar’s continuing political relevance in that state. Mr Kumar has been in power, save for a brief spell, for two decades. So anti-incumbency is a natural opponent. Mr Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) fetched a diminished kitty in 2020, enabling the Bharatiya Janata Party to emerge as the proverbial Big Brother. Mr Kumar’s record as chief minister on employment-generation and attracting industry has been disappointing. Of late, there has also been speculation about the state of his health. In the initial stages of this election campaign, even Mr Kumar’s allies — some BJP leaders — were not too keen on projecting him as the chief ministerial candidate. Yet, as the campaigning continued, reports from the ground suggested that Mr Kumar’s acceptability amidst the electorate has not been eroded. The change in tone in the BJP could well be attributed to Mr Kumar’s political durability even after years in power.
There are several explanations for this. Mr Kumar, who was initially seen as a representative of his Kurmi community only, has been able to, over the years, forge a wider caste solidarity, especially amidst the other backward classes and the Dalits, thereby building a reliable support base that makes him a contender for the top job in each election. His welfare measures for women have also been instrumental to his political longevity in a state where voter turnout among women has been higher in recent years than among men. The National Democratic Alliance’s announcement of a financial grant of Rs 10,000 for women on this occasion is a testament to this constituency’s centrality to the electoral math. The JD(U)’s principal rival — and occasional ally, thanks to Mr Kumar’s unpredictability — the Rashtriya Janata Dal has also contributed to Mr Kumar’s endurance. The RJD may have emerged as the single largest party in 2020 but it has not been able to efface its own unruly legacy; little wonder then that its adversaries hope to benefit from invoking the fear of jungle raj. Lalu Prasad and, now, Tejashwi Yadav, have also failed to widen the RJD’s presence within Bihar’s caste matrix beyond its traditional Yadav support base. ‘TINA’, the lack of an alternative, both in terms of a leader and a vision, perhaps keeps Mr Kumar in the saddle.