New Delhi, Oct. 2 (PTI): The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) today said India has the potential for a 5.4 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2003, substantially higher than the Asian average of 4.4 per cent.
The projection is based on the Fugi model, which has been used by Unctad since 1981 for long-range forecasts of world economy and also for forecast simulations of the United Nation’s (UN) development strategies and perspective studies.
The UN body's projection for India is in sharp contrast to the 6.0 per cent growth estimated by the Asian Development Bank, but higher than 5.1 per cent as estimated by the IMF.
In its Trade and Development Report for 2003, Unctad has placed India's growth next to China and Iran in the Asian region, with China’s growth pegged at 7.1 per cent and Iran’s at 5.7 per cent. However, it found a distinction in India's growth momentum, which was rather robust compared with other Asian giants because of weak links with the US economy, which dipped by 1 per cent in the first quarter of 2003 compared with 2.5 per cent in 2002.
Though Asian economy had been affected by the end of the information technology boom in the US, it said, “India, with looser links to the US economy, increased its growth to over 5.0 per cent in 2001 and maintained 4.5 per cent in 2002.”