There would be relief and smiles all over the world if the United States of America and Iran were to ink a peace deal in the near future. One leader, however, is likely to be left scowling — the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. A peace deal between Washington and Tehran could leave Mr Netanyahu vulnerable in terms of his strategic as well as domestic goals. The three principal objectives of Israel in the course of the West Asia conflict whose economic fallouts are causing suffering globally pertain to regime-change in Tehran, the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme, and the stunting of its missile capacities. None of these has materialised as of now. A peace deal that allows Tehran to retain its nuclear edifice in some form for the long term or leads to the waiver of crippling economic sanctions could spell further trouble for Mr Netanyahu. Mr Netanyahu has apparently suffered a fall from grace from Donald Trump’s inner circle engaged in peace negotiations: he has admitted that he is not in a position to influence Mr Trump. Mr Netanyahu’s initial, erroneous assumptions regarding Iran’s vulnerabilities that are believed to have snuffed out Mr Trump’s grand hopes of a quick triumph may be the likely cause of his present banishment. Consequently, Israel is having to do with scraps of information coming out of diplomatic hives or from their own surveillance. These developments will deal a political blow to Mr Netanyahu who had once convinced Israelis that he was one of Mr Trump’s trusted allies. Moreover, there are signs of fatigue in a nation that has, so far, been receptive to Mr Netanyahu’s strategy of invoking a state of perpetual war.
Of course, estrangement is not permanent in bilateral ties. The unpredictable trajectory of both war — the US has already struck Iran on Monday — and peace in West Asia means that Mr Trump may have to rely on Israel soon. In any case, the US’s abandonment of Israel is inconceivable, even for a whimsical president like Mr Trump. But the US must try and keep Israel on the margins for a while as it proceeds with its talks with Tehran to end the conflict. Mr Netanyahu’s marginalisation may give the US the clarity and the objectivity that its leadership needs, elements that are likely to get undermined if Mr Netanyahu is allowed to weigh in with his vested interests.