As Iranian authorities cracked down on protesters who hit the streets to challenge the government over inflation and a mounting economic crisis, Donald Trump, the president of the United States of America, threatened to attack Iran. He said, not once but on several occasions, that the strikes would be aimed at helping the protesters. Yet, as speculation over when and how he would attack Iran grew, Mr Trump seemingly pulled back, saying that Iranian officials had stopped killing protesters and that they had promised not to execute anyone arrested. By then, however, more than 5,000 protesters had been killed, according to human rights groups. While Mr Trump’s penchant for flip-flops is unparalleled in modern geopolitics — he has not ruled out the possibility of a military strike against Iran either — his apparent willingness to, for the moment at least, remove his finger from the trigger offers insights into how countries, if they work together, can push him to rethink his plans. There are whispers that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and several other Middle Eastern countries put pressure on Mr Trump to avoid attacking Iran, arguing that a strike would further inflame a region already simmering with other conflicts. Some reports even suggested that Israel — for long an advocate of attacks on Iran — was not in favour of a US strike against Tehran at a time when Tel Aviv appears to be bracing for a fresh escalation against Lebanon.
It is impossible to confirm exactly what shifted Mr Trump’s calculus against attacking Iran at the height of the protests. But it is no secret that his Make America Great Again base is against protracted wars that drag in American soldiers and wealth. Mr Trump’s willingness to work with the remnants of the old Venezuelan regime of the former president, Nicolás Maduro, also shows that he is, first and foremost, a dealmaker. His readiness this week to pull back from tariffs against European backers of Greenland’s sovereignty after talks with the NATO chief, Mark Rutte, in Davos also serves as evidence of Mr Trump’s negotiating style: ask for the moon, and settle for the stars. It is unclear whether Iran or Middle Eastern nations like Saudi Arabia and Qatar have quietly offered Mr Trump a deal. But what is certain is that no deal is a guarantor for long-term peace with Mr Trump. Iran-US relations remain on edge, and are likely to stay that way.