There is an Assamese word (with origins in Bodo) to describe a storm of enormous magnitude — bordoisila. It’s a word that conjures up a combination of power, intensity, furious winds that, at times, exceed 100 km per hour, and torrential rain that can demolish buildings and wreak havoc on standing crops. The landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies in Assam’s legislative elections under the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma can be compared to the bordoisila phenomenon, with the Opposition suffering an extraordinary debacle. Even defectors like Pradyut Bordoloi, who quit his Lok Sabha seat, and Bhupen Borah, a former Congress state president, both of whom switched at the last minute from the Congress to the BJP, rode the storm to victory even though much had been made of the fact that there were divisions in the ruling party over their nomination. On the other hand, Gaurav Gogoi, who led a high-profile campaign against the chief minister and the ruling party, slid to a humiliating defeat in Jorhat, a seat he had won convincingly two years ago in the Lok Sabha elections in the face of an onslaught by the ruling party. This was the worst performance by the Congress in 15 years. Gogoi, the recently-appointed chief of the party in Assam, is known to be close to the Congress president, Rahul Gandhi, and his mother, Sonia Gandhi.
Winning three back-to-back elections — as the Congress had done between 2001 and 2011 — is no mean feat. Assam has been painted saffron from its northern tip, where the state borders Arunachal Pradesh, to the west and down southeast into the Barak Valley. Spots of other colours mark the handful of victors from the Opposition. Also staggering was the proportion of BJP winners — of the 89 seats contested, Sarma’s nominees won no less than 82 (an astonishing 92%). As a result, the BJP has established a strong majority in the 126-seat assembly as a single party for the first time. Technically, it could form a government on its own strength although it has an alliance with regional allies such as the Asom Gana Parishad and the Bodoland People’s Front, the latter in its bastion of the Bodoland Territorial Council in western Assam. The BJP has grown phenomenally since 2011 when it won a bare five seats; the Congress under Gaurav’s father, Tarun Gogoi, the then chief minister, had notched up 78. It was Sarma’s departure from the Congress in 2015 that helped propel the BJP to power the following year in the state elections. The Congress’ decline began at the same time, and Sarma made no secret of his antipathy towards the Gandhi family as well as for Gogoi. He was Number Two to the former chief minister, Sarbananda Sonowal, before succeeding the latter in 2021.
Over the next few days, poll and political analysts will decode the details of and the reasons for the comprehensive victory and the defeat of the BJP and the Congress, respectively. What is clear, however, is that extensive welfare schemes influenced the crucial women’s vote as funds reached the bank accounts of millions of women regularly. In addition, first time voters/young voters, especially students, appreciated a surging growth in scholarships and stipends. These factors had a greater impact than the anti-Muslim rhetoric that Sarma extensively deployed over the years. According to Sushanta Talukdar, a senior political commentator, the BJP’s “aggressive campaign” over minority issues and issuance of land deeds to the families of tea plantation workers helped the party consolidate its traditional support base. In addition, Talukdar says, “The Opposition failed to set a strong narrative around an alternative agenda of governance. Seat sharing happened quite late and confusion among the electors posed a stumbling block in transfer of votes.” Sarma’s incredible energy and relentless campaigning were the other major plus factors. He seemed to be everywhere at all hours, dancing on platforms, waving to crowds, listening to complaints, rushing to meetings, and being constantly accessible to the media. The extensive social media deployment by the BJP and a friendly local media were also of help.
The BJP, which out-funded and outmanoeuvred its opponents, won across the five ethnically diverse regions and the 35 districts that define Assam. These are Upper Assam, Central and North Assam, Lower Assam, the Barak Valley, and the BTC area. Upper Assam is dominated by various ethnic groups, including the Ahoms and the tea plantation communities; Assamese Hindus (including Kalita and Koch) and indigenous tribal groups like Bodo, Mishing, Tiwa and Karbi and a significant Muslim population as well as the towns of Nagaon and Tezpur dominate Central and North Assam; although Guwahati, the political capital and commercial centre, is an overwhelmingly large urban presence, Muslim demographics are also significant in the Lower Assam districts; Bengali-speakers of both religious groups are a majority in the Barak Valley; the BTC is controlled by the BPF of Hagrama Mohilary although the population is mixed. A key factor has been the redrawing of several constituencies over three years back, turning seats where Muslim candidates would be assured of wins earlier because of the demographic breakup into seats reserved for scheduled tribe and scheduled caste candidates. The BJP appears to have done well in these redrawn constituencies which attests to Sarma’s sleight of hand and the political edge he has held over his rivals.
At the time of delimitation, the chief minister told journalists: “The NRC was unsuccessful and the Assam Accord did not live up to expectations.” The NRC refers to the National Register of Citizens, which is still in limbo, while the Assam Accord of 1985, between student agitators and the then Central government, fixed a cut-off date of 1971 for detecting and deporting Bangladeshi nationals from the state. The influx issue is highly complex and contested; many long-time Muslim residents of Assam say they feel vulnerable and face prejudice.
The epic scale of the BJP victory and the equally stunning defeat of the Opposition raise concerns about increasing polarisation, a situation that the latter, in its enfeebled state, is not in a position to do much about. These are also conditions which call for wise and thoughtful reflection and leadership by the government.
The elections in Assam were being watched closely by other states across the country as well as by other countries, not least Bangladesh with which India has had an uneasy relationship since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. Matters may not have been helped when the Bangladesh government lodged a formal protest with New Delhi last week, objecting to the remarks made by the Assam chief minister about pushing suspected Bangladeshis into that country. But this did not appear to make much of an impact on the surging saffron tide.
The BJP landslide in the most populous northeastern state is also bound to be felt across the region, especially in those states that are headed for polls in the next few years. These include Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura.
The Congress and its allies in Assam will need to pick up the pieces, introspect, unite their divided house, and learn lessons from the desertions they have suffered and the pummelling they have received. They will need to reorganise their depleted and demoralised forces. It will not be an easy task to make a decent showing in future elections. Their alliance was stitched together hastily and Gogoi did not have enough time to establish himself: he seemed to have parachuted into Assam from a longish tenure as a member of Parliament. This is in sharp contrast to Sarma who has a long history of state politics.
Local equations hold the balance in state elections, not national issues. The bordoisila, the pre-monsoon storm, confirmed that.
Sanjoy Hazarika is a writer who specialises on the Northeast and travels extensively in the region