It will be an electoral summer. The Election Commission of India’s announcement on Sunday of assembly elections in four states — West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Assam — and one Union territory — Puducherry — in April implies that the political temperature will rise along with the heat. The results would be announced in early May. What is interesting is that the forthcoming elections would be a teasing, but also complex, mix of regional and national cross-currents. For instance, in Tamil Nadu, the principal battle would be among Dravidian parties — the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam would feel it is better placed to return to power by puncturing the hopes of its rivals, including the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and new aspirants. The national outfits, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress, play second fiddle in this contest. In Assam, though, the poll battle is being fought between the BJP and the Congress directly; Kerala adds the Left Democratic Front to a pool that has the Congress, the Left’s traditional rival, as well as an eager BJP. So national and regional issues and political aspirations would collide in revealing ways this summer. It can, however, be stated that the stakes for the incumbent regimes in Kerala, Bengal and Tamil Nadu are slightly higher than they are for the BJP, which is a challenger in these places.
Many eyes in the nation would be on Bengal. This is not being suggested to pander to exceptionalism. A win for the ruling Trinamool Congress would establish Mamata Banerjee — seeking a fourth term — as the most potent among Opposition leaders. It could stoke her national ambitions, with interesting consequences for the INDIA bloc. A win in Bengal would be the proverbial cherry on the cake for the BJP. Two other elements remain consequential in the context of the Bengal polls. Will a two-phased poll help contain violence? The prime minister’s recent visit to Calcutta coincided with hooliganism on the streets of the capital. The spectre of the Special Intensive Revision will also hang heavy over these polls with the fate of a large number of electors placed under the adjudication category still uncertain.