Nilambur, nestled in the foothills of the Western Ghats, has long been celebrated for its unique, golden-brown teak wood, which is famed for both elegance and endurance. This prized timber once found its way onto the decks of the Titanic and, in more recent times, into the opulent interiors of Rolls-Royce’s elite Phantom series. But today, on June 23, Nilambur is in the spotlight as Kerala closely watches the outcome of a high-stakes assembly by-election that was held here on June 19.
Normally, a by-election to a legislative assembly seat with less than a year left in its term would scarcely spark such fire and brimstone. But few contests have seen a campaign as feverish as this one, even in a politically charged state like Kerala. The reason? Nilambur is widely seen as the curtain-raiser for next May’s Kerala assembly polls. The stakes were evident on the ground: the United Democratic Front’s campaign peaked with a road show led by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, while the chief minister, Pinarayi Vijayan, personally addressed meetings in every panchayat for the Left Democratic Front.
For the Communist Party of India (Marxist), which heads the ruling LDF, the upcoming May polls are crucial. Kerala remains the only state where the party is in power, that too for an unprecedented two consecutive terms. For the Congress-led UDF, the stakes are equally high. Having languished in the Opposition for a decade, another defeat could trigger an internal collapse and questions about its relevance.
The Nilambur assembly constituency, located in Malappuram district, has been traditionally a Congress-Muslim League bastion. In the 14 assembly elections held in Nilambur since 1967, the Congress has won on ten occasions. As a segment in the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat, Nilambur gave substantial leads to Congress’s Rahul Gandhi in 2021 and Priyanka Gandhi last year. Only the last two assembly elections were exceptions when P.V. Anvar, a former Congress leader, won as an LDF-backed independent in 2016 and 2021.
The present bypoll was necessitated by Anvar’s resignation in January, following his fallout with the LDF and his levelling of serious allegations against his former mentor, Vijayan. Subsequently, after an unsuccessful attempt to join Tamil Nadu’s ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Anvar joined the All India Trinamool Congress, which had virtually no presence in Kerala so far.
The by-election witnessed a bitter four-cornered contest between the LDF, the UDF, the Bharatiya Janata Party and Anvar, who fought as an independent. The Election Commission dismissed Anvar’s initial nomination as an AITC candidate because the party was not registered in Kerala. The month-long campaign saw an initial camaraderie between Anvar and the UDF which dramatically collapsed within days. The fallout occurred after the Congress announced Aryadan Shoukath — Anvar’s traditional rival — as its candidate, disregarding his strong objections. Shoukath and Anvar belong to Nilambur’s two long-feuding Congress families. Shoukath, an award-winning film producer and scriptwriter, is the son of the late Congress veteran, Aryadan Muhammed, who represented Nilambur for eight terms. Following his father’s death, Shoukath contested from Nilambur in 2016, prompting Anvar to leave the Congress to contest and win with the CPI(M)’s support. Anvar’s recent patch-up with the UDF did not end his rivalry with the Aryadans.
Although many in the UDF were keen to accommodate Anvar, he faced a powerful adversary: the Opposition leader, V.D. Satheesan, whom Anvar had frequently reviled in the past. Satheesan insisted that Anvar would not be accepted unless he publicly endorsed Shoukath. This infuriated Anvar, who entered the contest vowing to teach both Vijayan and Satheesan a harsh lesson. His move complicated the election for the UDF, which expected a cakewalk, banking on the apparent anti-incumbency sentiment and Anvar’s support. Although Anvar is unlikely to win, the key question now is which front will lose more because of his candidature. Anvar had announced that the chief minister of West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee, would lead his campaign. But only Yusuf Pathan, a former cricketer and AITC’s Lok Sabha member, could make it to Nilambur.
The LDF’s hopes are mostly pinned on its candidate, M. Swaraj, a firebrand leader who had headed the CPI(M)’s student and youth wings. Known for his oratory and ideological expositions, Swaraj has attracted support beyond party lines, including from prominent cultural activists.
The party caught in the toughest bind is the BJP, which had initially decided not to contest, citing its weak base in the constituency. This triggered protests from within its ranks and ridicule from critics. Forced to backtrack, the BJP eventually fielded Mohan George, a Christian and former UDF leader. Through George, the BJP hopes to advance its ongoing efforts to woo Christian voters, who constitute 17.4% of Nilambur’s electorate.
When the campaign began, both the UDF and LDF had framed it as a referendum on the state government. The UDF claimed it would serve as an indictment of the government, while the LDF asserted that it would be an endorsement. However, this narrative soon faded into the background, giving way to a new dominant theme: who appeased the communal forces more? Ironically, this was triggered by an announcement by two numerically minor Muslim outfits: the Welfare Party of India, the political wing of the socio-religious organisation, Jamaat-e-Islami Hind, and the People’s Democratic Party founded by the ailing Abdul Nasir Maudany, who was once the face of Kerala’s Islamist militancy. While the WPI reiterated support for the UDF, the PDP aligned with the LDF.
Both fronts accused each other of joining communal outfits even as they justified their respective alliances. While Satheesan claimed that JIH was no longer fundamentalist, the CPI(M)’s state secretary, M.V. Govindan, held that PDP was now a much-tormented organisation. The UDF recalled the CPI(M)’s past associations with JIH and the LDF asked why Shoukath appeased Muslim fundamentalists after having been their vocal critic in his films. Every Muslim vote was crucial in Nilambur, even though it is the only assembly segment in Kerala’s lone Muslim-majority district where Hindus hold a slight numerical edge.
Barely two days before polling, another bombshell shook the campaign. CPI(M)’s Govindan admitted that his party had collaborated with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh to oppose the Emergency. The UDF seized this and accused the CPI(M) of eyeing Hindu votes. Forced into hurried damage control, Vijayan soon met the media to recount the Congress’s history of tacit alliances with the RSS, including those involving the former prime minister, Indira Gandhi.
Interestingly, the limelight on polling day was reserved for Shashi Tharoor, Congress’s ‘star campaigner’, who, amid speculation about his growing camaraderie with the BJP, revealed that nobody from his party reached out to him to campaign in Nilambur — not even with a missed call.
M.G. Radhakrishnan, a journalist based in Thiruvananthapuram, has worked with various print and electronic media organisations