The United States of America is leading a frantic new effort to end the war in Ukraine with a fresh framework for a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv. But the details of the latest plan by President Donald Trump had sparked worries in Ukraine and Europe that the US might be willing to concede too much to Russia while putting pressure on the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to accept terms unpalatable to most people in his country. Under the draft proposal, Ukraine is to give up all of its Donbas region to Russia, even the parts that Kyiv’s military currently controls. Ukraine is to agree to cap the size of its military and stop pursuing long-range missiles and is to institute a constitutional provision making clear that it will never be a part of the NATO. Further, Mr Trump’s plan calls for amnesty for all alleged war criminals. These are all positions that are so in keeping with Russia’s view of the war that they could have been scripted in Moscow. Since the initial leak of the plan, American officials have engaged in hectic negotiations with European leaders and their counterparts in Kyiv and Moscow. Mr Trump’s peace plan has been amended as a result, and Ukrainian officials say the latest version is less offensive to them. Mr Trump has now sent his top negotiator, Steve Witkoff, to discuss this plan with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.
Mr Trump has signalled that he is optimistic about a breakthrough. He even set a Thursday deadline for an agreement only to renege on it later. Yet, as the war grinds on towards its fourth anniversary, there is a familiarity to the latest peace push that calls for a more sober assessment. Over the past 10 months, Mr Trump has on more than one occasion articulated a plan to end the war that Russia has been warm to, only for Ukraine and Europe to push through changes to the proposal. Russia has then refused to accept that proposal, while intensifying attacks on Ukraine to demonstrate its readiness to continue with the war. There is a reason why this cycle has played out repeatedly: wars end when the dynamics of the battlefield compel a ceasefire. Until Russia believes it can withstand Ukrainian and Western pressure while slowly gaining more territory and as long as Ukraine believes it has US and European military and diplomatic support, neither side will be desperate to end the war. No peace plan alone will change that equation.