As the war by US-Israel on Iran and Tehran’s subsequent retaliation against Israel and the Gulf countries continue into the fourth week, India’s failure to firmly condemn
the actions of the Donald Trump administration and the Benjamin Netanyahu government has sparked a debate on New Delhi’s foreign policy.
The criticism of the Indian government’s silence is understandable. India cannot be a leader of the Global South if it is seen to be quiet when a key emerging economy is under bombardment.
But inherent in that denunciation is an erroneous assumption that India is what the official narrative would like the country to believe it is — an emerging global power, an economic heavyweight the world envies, and a country that has historically been in the right, morally.
Lower the expectations and imagine a major economy struggling with inequality, limited manufacturing, and a dependence on imports; a strong military that still buys most of its hardware from other nations; and an astute diplomatic force that relied on a rules-based order. With these attributes, India is still a formidable player on the global stage but with weaknesses that the war started by Trump has exposed.
Let’s start with some hard facts. The war launched by the US and Israel against Iran was unprovoked, illegal and reckless. Iran — as per the US intelligence community’s own assessment — was not rebuilding its nuclear programme that, according to Trump’s own claims, had been “obliterated” last June. The attacks on Iran were a violation of the UN Charter, and, according to Democrats, breached the war powers that the American Constitution gives the president. Trump’s frequent flip-flops have also exposed the poor planning behind the military operation with Washington now effectively lifting some sanctions on Iranian oil amid a war with Tehran to try to calm crude markets.
It is also hard to deny that India found itself on the back foot with the war and its timing. Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel two days before Israel assassinated the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left New Delhi in an embarrassing position. Had Israel played India, plotting an illegal war against another of New Delhi’s partners
while pretending to be engaged in diplomacy with Modi? Or was the prime
minister informed about — and, hence, complicit in — the impending war? It does not look good either way. That India did not condemn Khamenei’s assassination only compounded New Delhi’s initial missteps. It took five days for the foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, to visit the Iranian embassy in New Delhi to condole Khamenei’s death.
But diplomacy cannot be conducted by looking at the rear-view mirror. In a fast-evolving war, India’s strategic planners need to keep their eyes on what’s next, and how the changing conflict could impact the country.
The harsh reality is that India does not carry the diplomatic or strategic clout to influence the direction of this war. Modi and Netanyahu might call each other the best of friends but the Israeli premier — he has defied multiple US presidents over his long decades in power — isn’t going to give up on war because Modi says that this is an “era of peace”.
The best India’s diplomatic Establishment can do is manage the crisis. It has convinced Iran to allow several Indian-flagged tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. It is keeping relations intact with the Gulf countries that Iran has attacked. It has also secured US sanctions relief to buy some Russian oil. And, on the ground in the Middle East, the country’s diplomatic missions are busy delivering round-the-clock help to the 10 million Indians living in the Gulf.
War is dirty. And this war is unlikely to leave any major nation spotless. The Indian government’s ultimate test will be whether it succeeds in insulating its people better than other administrations. If it does that, then the spots might just be worth it.
Charu Sudan Kasturi is a journalist who specialises in foreign policy and international relations