Even as the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey met in Islamabad over the weekend to push for negotiations between the United States of America and Iran, the rhetoric and the reality emerging from both Washington and Tehran point to a narrowing window for diplomacy. Pakistan’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, has indicated that Islamabad hopes to host diplomats from the US and Iran soon. The foreign ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt also announced the formation of a four-member team to carry out back-channel negotiations and transmit messages between the US and Iran. But while the talks were on in Pakistan, the US president, Donald Trump, said in an interview that he wanted to take Iran’s oil and was considering the seizure of Kharg island, from where Iran exports 90% of its crude. Then, while flying on Air Force One, he told reporters that he thought the Pakistan-led efforts at peace talks were proceeding well. But hours later, he posted on social media that if a deal with Iran were not reached shortly, he would order the US military to blow up Iran’s electricity plants, oil wells, Kharg island — which American war planes have already bombed once — and, possibly, desalination facilities.
Mr Trump’s flip-flopping positions between expressing confidence in negotiations and advocating for a military escalation create the impression of an American leadership that is confused. They also undermine the fledgling peace talks, cementing the cynicism that they are a matter of optics only. The rapid deployment of US marines in the Middle East coupled with reports of the Pentagon preparing for a ground invasion can undercut any momentum gained in the peace talks. Already, the US has twice attacked Iran in the span of nine months while diplomatic negotiations were underway. Iran has little reason to trust Washington, and the country’s leaders and foreign ministry have repeatedly made it clear that they believe the US is trying to buy time to launch a ground attack. Israel’s provocative escalations — bombing Iranian universities and civil nuclear facilities — act as further spoilers. Successful diplomacy relies on consistent, predictable, and believable dialogue. More than Tehran’s leadership, the blame for the absence of meaningful dialogue between the warring nations must lie with the vacillating Mr Trump. Will the world have to wait for the anti-war protests in America to gather steam before Mr Trump settles for peace?