The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, the party of the former prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, seems to be in a conundrum: whether to start a dialogue with the government or to launch another protest movement. Earlier this month, senior PTI leaders like Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Yasmin Rashed wrote a joint letter to the party leadership from jail. The incarcerated leaders urged PTI to start a political dialogue to end the ongoing instability in Pakistan. They emphasised that the only way out of the political instability is through a dialogue with political stakeholders and engagement with “powerful quarters”, that is, the Establishment. They also asked the government to make regular access to Khan — who will complete two years in jail on August 5 this year — easier so that he can form a negotiation committee and can be easily consulted during the dialogue process. The letter suggested that detained leaders be included in the dialogue.
Many political observers hailed this letter and said that finally sane advice is being given to Khan and his party by those whose loyalty cannot be doubted as they never betrayed Khan and have been in jail for two years now. They were of the view that this advice should be heeded as protests have not yielded any positive results for the PTI — in fact, some protests, such as the one on May 9, 2023 and last year’s November protest, led to more difficulties for the former ruling party. People believe that political dialogue will give the PTI some breathing room, create political space for the party and slowly but eventually pave the way for the release of incarcerated PTI leaders and workers.
However, Khan seemingly has other plans. Only a few days after the letter, a message from Khan was posted on X from his official account: “I repeatedly called for dialogue in the best interest of the country. But the time for negotiations has now passed… The Pakistani nation now has only one path forward: a nationwide protest movement… I will have completed two full years of unjust imprisonment on August 5th. One that very day our nationwide protest campaign will be at its peak. There will be no further negotiations of any kind with anyone anymore! The only path forward is mass protest in the streets, so the nation can rid itself of the puppets forcibly imposed upon it as its rulers.”
Addressing a presser over the weekend in Lahore, the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Ali Amin Gandapur, said that the PTI’s latest protest movement would be “do or die” in nature. He gave a 90-day ultimatum for Khan’s release: “Listen carefully, decision-makers — listen, custodians of the state — our 90 days begin today. On the 91st day, it will be either us or you.” Political experts say that such ultimatums do not normally work because governments do not fall due to such protests. We saw how the PTI dharna back in 2014 could not lead to the dismissal of the Nawaz Sharif-led government despite the fact that it had the Establishment’s backing. Now even the Establishment’s backing is missing for the PTI as there is a hybrid government in place.
A recent survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa revealed that an overwhelming majority of provincial residents prefer working with the federal government over participating in protests. This is something that has been pointed out by many a political observer since the February 2024 general elections; they say that the PTI has one provincial government, which should focus on good governance instead of using provincial resources to either lay siege to the capital or other such protest movements. There is no doubt that peaceful protests are a democratic right and if the PTI wants to exercise it, there is nothing wrong with it. At the same time, the government seems to be in a comfortable position and with the Establishment on the ‘same page’, there is no imminent danger of its ouster. Observers thus feel that it is better to start negotiations as the PTI has already lost a lot of political space.
Mehmal Sarfraz is a journalist based in Lahore; mehmal.s@gmail.com