Almost two weeks after the horrific terror attack on tourists in Pahalgam, India’s security forces are still scrambling to nab the killers behind one of the worst assaults in Kashmir in a quarter of a century. They have combed the forests that surround the picturesque meadow that will now forever carry the stain of blood; raided homes across Kashmir and arrested 1,500 people to try to glean intelligence; and have even roped in neighbouring nations for help. Last week, a Sri Lankan Airlines flight from Chennai was searched on landing in Colombo over suspicions that some of the Pahalgam attackers might be on it. They were not, the search concluded, so the hunt carries on. Recent reports have also suggested that Indian intelligence agencies had a tip-off about a potential attack on tourists in Kashmir ahead of the Pahalgam killings — albeit in and around Srinagar — but were unable to prevent the assault. Admittedly, intelligence is often vague and inadequate to pre-empt terror attacks. But the failure to stop the carnage in Pahalgam as well as the delay in capturing the killers reveals a major intelligence failure in Pahalgam and its aftermath.
Worryingly, there appears to be little evidence that the prime minister, Narendra Modi, and his government are reflecting on what led to this failure in India’s intelligence grid in Kashmir and what needs to be done to avoid a repetition of this failure. Did the government start believing its own flawed narrative that the increase in the number of tourists meant that Kashmir was in a state of normalcy? Did its repeated assertion of the ‘all is well’ narrative breed complacency in the security and intelligence apparatus? Would it not have been better to involve the elected government of Jammu and Kashmir in security planning instead of keeping it out of those deliberations? India deserves an honest accounting of what went wrong in Pahalgam and of Mr Modi’s Kashmir policy more broadly. The scrapping of Article 370, the severe crackdown on Kashmiri society that followed, and the mass arrests under draconian anti-terror laws were all justified as necessary to end terrorism. Pahalgam has revealed that this was an erroneous approach. Now, with a fresh wave of arrests and home demolitions in Kashmir, Mr Modi’s government seems to be doubling down on its error. Alienating Kashmiris further will, among other things, increase the risks of future intelligence failures. A comprehensive review of India’s intelligence apparatus, its efficiency, and the challenges confronting it is the need of the hour.