The prime minister, Narendra Modi, recently praised his own government’s handling of the energy crisis that was spawned by the Iran war. This appears to reflect a growing confidence among the Indian leadership that the worst effects of the still simmering conflict are over. If that is indeed the case, the moment merits a careful examination of just how well or poorly the Modi government navigated the past few months of turbulence. The answer, unsurprisingly, is not black and white. While it might appear
unseemly to toot one’s own horn, the prime minister is not wrong in claiming that India weathered the energy shortages created by the war launched by the United States of America and Israel on Iran better than most other nations. It successfully secured waivers on the purchase of Russian oil, bought some Iranian oil that was also exempt from otherwise strict US sanctions, and quickly turned to sources of crude it had either ignored for years or that it had never seriously explored — importing giant volumes of oil from Venezuela and Brazil. To be sure, all of this still left India well short of the supplies it needed, and Indian customers have had to pay significantly more than they previously did for petrol and LPG cylinders. Nevertheless, India was nimble in searching for and securing whatever alternative sources it could find, and credit must be given where it is due.
However, scrutiny too must be accepted where that is due. By refusing to condemn the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader when he was killed in a joint US-Israel strike on February 28 and then sending a relatively low-profile delegation to his funeral last week, the Indian government has reinforced perceptions in the Middle East and beyond that it is firmly in Israel’s camp. What is more, when the US vice-president, J.D. Vance, reminded Israeli officials that their country is increasingly isolated globally, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, pointed to India as a pillar of support. By allowing the US’s killing of Indian sailors in the Strait of Hormuz to pass without more than a verbal rebuke, India has weakened its standing in a world where might is right. This is significant both for the Iran war, which is only on pause, and for Indian diplomacy more broadly. The government must learn from its wins and losses if India is to be better prepared for the next crisis.