The agreement brokered by the United States of America between Israel and Lebanon last week marks the latest instance of a deal that promises peace on paper but could easily deepen the Middle East crisis. The pact conditions Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon on the disarmament of the Iran-aligned Hezbollah. But the Lebanese government — few countries have a weaker State — is in no position to enforce its writ on either Israel or Hezbollah. This means that Lebanon faces the reality of continued Israeli occupation in the south, Hezbollah’s strong presence in and around Beirut, and the constant threat of renewed clashes between the two. This unsustainable dynamic thrusts not only Lebanon into unending uncertainty but also leaves the broader region on edge. Even Iran and the US are trying to keep their fragile memorandum of understanding from sinking. Negotiators from Iran and the US are expected to meet in Doha today for renewed talks aimed at building on the discussions in Switzerland. The two nations have engaged in high-octane military strikes recently: Iran targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US bombed multiple Iranian sites along the coast, and Tehran retaliated by firing missiles and drones at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
Those exchanges show that deep differences remain between Tehran and Washington despite all the talks of negotiations aimed at peace. Iran insists that the MoU it has signed with the US makes it mandatory for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz to coordinate passage with Tehran even if they are trying to transit through Oman’s part of the waterway. The US and the Gulf nations reject that reading of the agreement. On Lebanon, the Donald Trump administration, it appears, cannot make up its mind. In recent days, the US vice-president, J.D. Vance, has pointed fingers at Israel for repeatedly blowing up prospective peace agreements by bombing Beirut while the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has consistently blamed only Hezbollah for the continuing clashes in Lebanon. For the people of Lebanon and the Middle East, this means that the prospect of a frozen war is no longer a nightmare but could become a living reality, with the global economy as collateral damage.