Despite the postponement of the talks in Switzerland, the signing of the memorandum of understanding between the United States of America and Iran to end their war marks a major moment in 21st-century geopolitics, its significance extending beyond the collective relief experienced around the world over the conclusion of a devastating conflict. The MoU sets the stage for 60 days of negotiations between the two sides on issues ranging from the future of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran's nuclear programme. For now, the US has lifted its naval blockade of Iran; Tehran, in turn, has withdrawn its restrictions on the passage of ships through the critical waterway. After more than 100 days, tankers filled with oil, gas and fertilisers from the Gulf countries are beginning to sail out of the Hormuz choke point. Oil prices are expected to dip and the fears of a prolonged global economic crisis are starting to ease.
But the agreement signed by the US president, Donald Trump, and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, represents a fragile truce at best, vulnerable to domestic politics in both countries and — this is not to be ignored — to the actions of Israel. The postponement of the first round of post-MoU negotiations, slated for Friday in Switzerland, amid continuing Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon is a case in point. Already, key members of the cabinet of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and prominent Republicans in the US have publicly criticised the MoU. The Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, in his first comments since the signing of the MoU, has said that he agreed to the deal despite his reservations — in effect acknowledging the deep suspicions and the distrust within Tehran's power circles towards Washington. It is unclear how much ground Iran will concede on nuclear enrichment or on its stockpile of already highly-enriched uranium. Tehran also needs to clear the mines that litter the Strait of Hormuz for ships to be able to pass through without worrying about unexpected explosions. Then there is the long shadow cast by Mr Netanyahu: will the truce between Israel and Hezbollah hold?
Irrespective of how the upcoming negotiations pan out, Iran has demonstrated to the world that even the strongest military power in the world can be forced to negotiate on its adversary's terms. In the MoU, the US has given up most of its demands and red lines from early in the war. For instance, Mr Trump is now arguing that Iran is justified in having ballistic missiles rather than insisting that they be eliminated. The MoU allows the possibility that Iran would not have to give up enriched uranium and can downblend it. It only insists that Iran not charge fees for transit through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days: what happens after that is left contingent upon the forthcoming negotiations. Incidentally, Mr Trump and his vice-president, J.D. Vance, have reserved their harshest criticism in recent days for Israel. Time will tell whether this represents a long-term shift in Washington or is a temporary posture. But regardless, new equations are being forged in the Middle East. It appears that Iran is setting the terms for now.