The recently-concluded summit on Artificial Intelligence that India hosted unveiled the many revolutionary capacities of this emerging technology. The optimism, given AI’s abilities, is understandable. But there is also a need, as the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, cautioned recently, to address the flipside to AI. Massive job losses — Ms Georgieva has described it as a “tsunami” — are expected on account of automation, and the numbers are telling. According to the IMF’s research estimates, globally, 40% of jobs will be affected by AI, with some being enhanced and others eliminated. Emerging economies may have to contend with 40% labour displacement: the corresponding figure is as high as 60% for advanced economies. Entry-level employment, given its vulnerability to automation, is at risk in particular. Worse, these changes in the labour markets would take place in a very short time.
This future is imminent. It is also unavoidable. What nations around the world need to do is build adaptive measures — urgently — not just in the fields of economy and labour but also across education and governance. For instance, education needs to be aligned with the changes so that it can impart to students skills that will be demanded by an AI-driven job market. This is particularly relevant to the Indian context wherein a large number of youth are joining a job market marked by scarce employment. Even as some professions fade away, some new jobs are likely to be created too. There should be personnel trained to take advantage of these emerging opportunities. For those employed in sectors that are expected to be eclipsed by AI’s shadow, fresh training course modules for skill enhancement must be in place. The need for the creation of a social security pool is urgent in the Indian context given the possibility of large-scale displacement of labour sooner than later. India has a young demographic cohort which, if trained well, can take advantage of the AI revolution. But this advantage can be offset by other challenges — uneven digital literacy, patchy digital architecture, embedded inequality, poverty and so on. The democracy must find out ways of democratising AI. Otherwise, like many other resources, the technology would become a monopoly in the hands of an affluent cartel that will deepen inequalities. India’s urgency to be a part of geopolitical blocs to benefit from this technology is understandable. But it must also make sure that AI becomes an equitable, collective resource within the country’s labour market.